President Obama and the American Dilemma in the Middle East

A few months ago, I had the opportunity to briefly exchange views with President Obama on the position of the U.S. in the Arab world. I mentioned that we were going to conduct an opinion poll of the Arabs, two years after the Cairo University speech of June 2009. President Obama told me that he expected that a majority would have a negative outlook towards the U.S., and that it would stay that way until the U.S. succeeded in helping resolve the conflict between Israel and Palestine.

The results came back confirming this trend and Obama’s expectations. We polled 4,000 people from six Arab countries (Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE). The results we obtained showed that the percentage of those who perceived the U.S. positively had dropped sharply since the last poll we conducted in 2009, shortly after Obama’s first 100 days in the White House. At that time, the Arabs had put their faith in President Obama. Change was necessary in the relationship between the U.S. and the Arab world; this was especially evident in Obama’s initial plan for a new, more democratic administration, which enhanced his image.

As a result, U.S. popularity increased after having hit rock bottom under George Bush’s Republican administration. However, this year’s poll showed that Arab expectations have not been met and that U.S. popularity, for the majority of Arab nations, is now lower than it was in 2008 or in any other years during George Bush’s time in office. In Morocco, for example, American popularity jumped from 26 percent in 2008 to 55 percent in 2009, yet today it does not exceed 12 percent. This picture has repeated itself in Egypt, where American popularity rose from nine percent in 2008 to 30 percent in 2009, before declining sharply and stabilizing at a mere five percent this year.

A review of the rest of the poll results shows that most Arabs feel that the continued occupation of Palestine represents “a serious obstacle to peace and stability in the Middle East” and is “the most important issue that should be addressed by the U.S. to improve its relationship with the Arab world.”

The Palestinian issue continues to dominate all the other issues raised in the poll. This goes against the wishful thinking of some U.S. and Israeli analysts, who believe that, in the midst of the Arab Spring, “the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians will lose its central importance.”

Some of those polled feel that “the American interventions in the Arab world” constitute “the second most serious obstacle to peace and stability,” explaining the role played by the U.S. in the imposition of the no-fly zone in Libya. It doesn’t appear that this is a step in the right direction; furthermore, in most Arab countries, it does not improve America’s image.

Other countries were included in the poll, including Turkey, Iran, France, and China, alongside the U.S., in order to see — in the opinion of the Arabs — if any of these countries play a constructive role “in strengthening peace and stability in the Arab world.” In eight out of 10 Arab countries that were polled about their outlook on America, the U.S. was at the bottom of the list, after France, Turkey and China. In four of the six countries polled, the U.S. came in after Iran.

It may be that all these results were expected, which is what the president himself realized. Yet these viewpoints are both important and timely because they send a strong signal to the American people and to Congress, and perhaps they will realize the error of their ways.

For example, when the American Congress called for the Israeli prime minister to deliver a speech challenging and insulting the U.S. president, the action met with thunderous applause from foreign leaders and echoed by Congress, they sent a strong message to the Arabs that the U.S. cannot and will not assume a constructive role in the peace process in the Middle East. When members of Congress undermine diplomatic efforts and support bills that cut necessary aid for Egypt, Lebanon and the Palestinians, they send the wrong message at the wrong time.

When the neoconservatives continue to call for a stronger, more aggressive foreign policy in the Middle East and for the use of force to impose their demands on various Arab parties, they have deliberately removed themselves from the reality of the Middle East and are on skating on thin ice.

President Obama deserves recognition because he comprehends the dilemma the U.S. faces across the Arab world. He began his term in office by sending the right signals and his intention to move in the right direction.

But — just as I said — Obama could not find an instant solution for the U.S. on the day of his inauguration. On the contrary, his predecessor George Bush left him with major obstacles across the Middle East. Obama has found that extricating himself and the U.S. from these complications is harder than can be imagined.

Since entering the White House, Obama has faced the worst economic crisis in generations, and on top of that has had to deal with two failed wars. Facing both the stubborn Israeli prime minister and a Palestinian political class divided amongst itself, as well as a downtrodden third world that has pinned all its hopes (and perhaps excessive expectations) on him, Obama is expected to master the White House and deliver the change he promised. The issue doesn’t stop there: since his first day in office, President Obama has faced strong partisan polarization in Washington, where the Republican party and his opposition interpret any win of Obama’s as their own failure.

The results brought about by the latest survey of Arab public opinion show how fragile the current situation is for the U.S. in the Middle East. They also highlight the need for American decisionmakers to grant us, the Arabs, due recognition.

It could be that some are distracted by the exercise of policy in dealing with sensitive issues concerning the Middle East, and that they are elated by their sabotage of President Obama’s efforts to achieve peace and rehabilitate the American image in the region. But — as we’ve shown in the poll — the U.S. has paid for this success at a heavy price.