The End of Obama

The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates near zero for another 24 months brought a measure of certainty as the markets reacted positively but briefly on Tuesday. This move has ensured (and the Fed has said this in as many words) that there will be no tangible economic recovery by the time the current administration has completed its cycle.

The commitments made by Barack Obama to get Congress to raise the debt ceiling, drastic cuts that do not contribute to the stimulation of the economy and even less to create jobs, coupled with the alarming condition of the European economies, indicate that the President will fight for his re-election in the most unfavorable circumstances.

A gritty and realistic view about his chances is placed in the order of miracles. Even his strongest supporters question his leadership. The great communicator, who shocked the world during his campaign, seems to have lost his oratory abilities. Again and again, Obama has disappointed when circumstances demanded strength, courage and challenge. Not only does he react late, almost a parody of the reaction of George W. Bush to the September 11th attacks, but when he finally does, not only has the urgency passed but his extemporaneous speech sounds distant.

This is what happened during the week that the United States faced the prospect of default, held hostage by a group of legislators associated with the tea party movementwho were more concerned with looking principled than rescuing the nation and much of the world.

Perhaps Obama’s tragedy is that of a man that is bright, sensibly endowed with the virtue of the word, whose heart is in the right place most of the time, but inhibited by an almost pathological inability to accept the need to fight.

And a fight is what the Republicans have given him from the moment he took office. They have not even bothered to create the appearance they respected the will of the electorate or the rules of fair play while waiting to see what steps the new administration would take. On the contrary, they started sabotaging it with all tools available, accusing Obama of having a socialist ideology, spreading the suspicion that he was an undercover Muslim, and even questioning the legitimacy of his citizenship.

Even with the advantages of a Democratic Congress during the first two years of his presidency, Obama had to struggle mightily to push through his initiatives, from the stimulus package of $838 million, too small to be truly effective, according to Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, to health insurance reform.

Moreover, the Republicans achieved the feat of almost immediately erasing their monumental responsibility and legacy in the deficit created by the Bush administration, not to mention an economy in virtual bankruptcy and two unfinished wars that were put in the hands of the new president. Given this extraordinary act of illusionism, Obama made the mistake of continuing to search for consensus, not realizing he was going blindly into the trap. The great danger at this time is that some of the world’s major economies are swinging on the verge of collapse and that Obama is being perceived as irrelevant. If this happens, if the fiery Obama from of the 2008 campaign does not revive from this shy and embarrassed version, the world will return to the cataclysm of 2008.

Perhaps the acceptance that his hopes for re-election are lost and that he is doomed to be, as was Jimmy Carter, president for just one term will unleash in him the energy and conviction needed to tame the crisis. And if this happens, you may discover that miracles exist.