Possibility for Obama’s Re-election Running Low

Published in Lianhe Zaobao
(Singapore) on 10 August 2011
by Run Shi (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Qu Xiao. Edited by Janie Boschma  .
With none other more powerful, Standard & Poor's is the Hercules of the economic world. It only removed one letter A from America’s credit rating and the whole world shook, leaving the global capital market bleeding and cowering in a corner. Dumbfounded investors felt desperate and confused, as if it were the end of the world. The existing bailout policy in Europe and America cannot stop the world economy’s decline anytime soon, and it will take a while to restore the world’s deflated confidence. Standard & Poor's heavy blow certainly will not hinder the world economy’s progress forever, but it surely has reset the starting point for the future economic development at a rather low level. It seems that the world economy is becoming more and more unstable. Before long, people will finally find out whether it is because of the natural loophole of the world's economic system or whether it is because of malicious manipulation by an invisible hand. Surely it is not Adam Smith’s hand.

China will not take active measures this time to save the market as it did when it reacted to the 2008 financial crisis. Strictly speaking, the financial crisis triggered by subprime lending is purely an economic issue, only a disastrous effect of the reckless expansion of loans in the process of quick economic development. Everyone can see the positive effect of the 4 billion RMB investments made by the Chinese government on the people’s livelihood project. Currently, the rising inflation rate may be a bit worrisome for the decision makers of that 4 billion RMB, and to this day, the People’s Bank of China is debating the so-called excess liquidity. China’s 4 billion RMB project has indeed won the world a short period of stability, and this has added points to the executive force of the Chinese government. However, if people take a look at the continuous rise of the CPI in China this year, they may wonder whether this is just another Pyrrhic victory.

Unlike the financial crisis, the current sovereign debt crisis can be wholly attributed to the defects of America’s political system. Congress and the Democratic and Republican Parties are all too greedy, striking to fulfill their own interests. Negotiating the debt ceiling and only reaching an agreement at the deadline shows that, in America, an agreement made this way is totally reasonable. Following endless debate up to the last second of the allowed game time, the two parties will then shake hands and make compromises standing on their own bottom lines. All of these are tricks of the U.S. government, not the plans of Standard & Poor's, which is considered to be an academically independent upholder of justice. It warned the government four months ago that the only way to protect America’s 3A rating would be to cut back $4 billion in financial deficit over the next 10 years. Because the actual number is only half of what Standard & Poor's expected, its authority has thus been looked down upon by Congress; however, most countries in the world still believe in the science of this credit rating drop and they all conform and make pessimistic forecasts about America's economic prospects. The 2008 financial crisis seems to be returning in full swing under disguise.

As a main critic of Chinese politics, America has recently been causing troubles for China around the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Although China is the biggest oversea buyer of America’s bonds and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will inevitably lead to the slump of China’s per capital consumption power, it still has not inspired China to join the stable market of the G7. This is because, in theory, the economic turmoil is America’s fault, after all, and with tricky economic consequences to deal with, America is less focused on pressuring China’s politics. America has been suppressing China’s power in the world political arena with its superior political status, and as a consequence, China has been quite isolated with very limited space. But now the so-called superior political system has backfired, and its own economic consequences are better left for America itself to handle. We will not say that China is gloating, but both of the two most recent economic disasters originated in the affluent western democracies. This has intrigued people into doubting the credibility of the so-called “all-powerful political system.”

Since Obama was sworn in, he has been struggling with America’s economy and after a two-year attempt, he finds himself still caught in the same old mire. In one year, one president can hardly make America’s economy rocket up dramatically to its previous level. Even if organizations continue short-selling like crazy and support Obama in a third round of quantitative easing to maintain a bleak economic environment, America’s economy will keep staggering under the restrains of debt, environmental protection, social welfare, military expenses and the next deadline of the raising of the debt ceiling.

Israel made the latest compromises to the Arab World to lessen America’s political and economical burden in the process of its anti-terrorist battle, but its positive effect needs time to reveal itself. As China is not that friendly with America, China will probably choose to look on from the sidelines and let the already fragile market continue its downward trend, just to enlarge the defects of America’s political system. What’s more, Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, supporting Japan in the Diaoyu Islands Dispute, carrying out military drills with the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, signing treaties with and selling arms to Taiwan have all disappointed China. China might as well just stand aside and leave America’s economic problems to the U.S. government itself. Everyone knows that China is suffering from rising domestic inflation anyway, which gives China a good excuse for not being helpful.

Obama’s biggest success may be bringing down bin Laden, but the Islamic world, with democratization raging, will not choose to follow a president who lost America’s hundreds of years long credit rating of 3A in one term. The reason they embrace western democracy is for its prosperity. Most Americans may have a fairer understanding and kinder judgment of President Obama, but, for them, the lack of a good political system guiding the economy is more unbearable than the long-criticized non-democratic system in East Asia. In the future, what will trouble voters is that the merits of the president’s personality don’t seem to help him yield more fruit in political and economic development. China’s passive attitude as an onlooker creates negative prospects for America's future economic development, whether Obama secures another term or if one of the Republican candidates takes his place.

The possibility of Obama’s reelection is rather low. Although devoted and assiduous he may be, Obama wasn’t born in the best time to be a president. He has to honor the promise America made to Taiwan, but he also wants to spread American values to the world and steer the world economy into the way America wants it to be. China has opposite interests in many fields and a deep grudge seems to have developed in Sino-U.S. relations. It would take a miracle for China and America’s politics to radically change, just as America’s economy needs a miracle to recover. If Obama wants to continue his political career, he should also hope for a miracle.


标准普尔是这个经济世界的大力神,几乎没有比它更有力量的单元了,它仅仅是删除了一个字母A,全世界就为之颤抖,整个世界资本市场都在滴血,蜷缩在角落,如同遭遇雷击一般的投资者难免有大难临头极度凄惶之感,欧美已有的软弱救市政策短期内无法止住世界经济的颓势,信心修复所需的时间不会太短,标普的重锤当然不能永远阻挡世界经济的进步,但那将会从一个很低的新起点开始,世界经济的震荡周期似乎越来越频繁,良知的眼睛终会发现:是世界经济体系天然的严重漏洞,还是一双看不见的手在恶意操纵?它不是亚当斯密的手。

  中国不会像2008年金融海啸时那样积极救市,由次贷引发的金融危机严格意义上看是单纯的经济问题,是为扩张经济肆意搜罗贷款对象的一个恶果,中国人的四万亿投资正面效果见仁见智,目前高企的通货膨胀率会让四万亿的决策者心有余悸,中国央行至今还在为所谓流动性过剩大打出手,中国四万亿计划为世界争取到一个短暂的平稳国际环境可能为它的政治执行力加分不少,不过,看看本年来似乎没玩没了节节上升的CPI数字,这是否是一场皮洛士的胜利?

  与金融海啸不同,当下的主权债务危机则可以归咎于美国政治的祸害,美国国会两党都过于贪婪,希望更多地满足自身的条件,直到债限的最后时间才达成协议,从美国政治体制的角度来看,协议就应该如此诞生:尽情的争辩,用尽游戏规则允许的最后一秒,争执双方在各自可以妥协的底线上握手言和。但这不是被认为学术独立、行为公正的标准普尔所需要的方案,它在四月个月前就已提示未来十年削减四万亿财政赤字的计划方可保住3A,由于实际数额仅达一半左右,标普的权威显然遭到国会的蔑视,世界并不都认为标普是因为被激怒而是出于纯技术立场做出调级举措,绝大多数国家和人都信任这个调级具有科学性,集体对美国经济的前景预判悲观,于是,2008年金融海啸似乎乔装打扮后卷土重来。

  作为中国政治的主要批评者,近期在台海、南海、东海等许多地方遭到美国阻击的中国虽然是美国债券最大的海外买家,虽然美元贬值将导致中国资产购买力大幅降低,但并没有激发中国立即加入G7稳定市场的冲动,因为理论上是毕竟是美国政治引起的经济震荡,美国政治带来的经济后果可以降低中国政治体制的现有压力,一直以来,美国以政治正确的强势地位压制中国在世界的活动空间,中国已经变得相当孤立,空间极其有限,但是现在所谓优越的政治体制造成的经济麻烦最好让他们自己料理,不能假设中国对局势幸灾乐祸,但是最近的两次世界性经济蹦极都源于西方民主、富裕国家确实令人深思,容易诱发对所谓“制度万能”见解的重大疑虑。

  奥巴马总统当选以来一直在美国经济的低谷中挣扎,两年之后仍进退维谷,未来一年多时间内总统很难让美国经济拔地而起,即使各种机构继续联手疯狂做空美国,短期内形成世界范围内恐怖的经济气氛,帮助总统毫无阻挡地迅速推出规模空前的第三轮量化宽松计划,美国经济的活力仍会在债务、环保、社会福利、军费以及下一个举债上限截止日等的牵制下步履蹒跚。

  以色列对阿拉伯世界最新做出的让步旨在减轻美国在反恐战争中的政治与经济重负,但是它的积极效果尚需时日才能显现,中美关系远未达到这一步,世界上手头最宽松的中国政府则基本会在近期保持观望,让敏感的市场弱势下行,这会放大美国制度的弊端,奥巴马总统会见达赖、将钓鱼岛划归日美安保条约范围,与菲律宾、越南在南海军演并签约,对台售武计划都曾让中国心寒,就让美国政治演化的经济问题顺其自然吧,反正中国通货膨胀世界有目共睹。

  奥巴马总统最大的成功或许是击毙本拉登,但是一个处于正日趋激烈化民主进程中的伊斯兰世界不会选择一个任内致美国丧失百年3AAA的总统,他们投向民主怀抱的目的是富裕,绝大多数的美国人民可能对奥巴马总统更了解,更公允、仁慈,但是,没有优良政治体制的经济却看起来比饱受西方诟病的东亚非民主政体潦倒得多是一件无法忍受的事,未来让美国选民挠头的是,总统人格上的长处,并未帮助他在政治、经济上大有作为,这会让选民爱恨交加,裹足不前。中国可能的旁观或者不积极跟进虽不是下届总统选举的决定性因素,但是对总统连任后经济发展展望具负面作用。

  奥巴马总统连任的可能性非常低,尽管他忠于职守,十分勤勉,但作为总统一直有点生不逢时。他既要遵循美国对台湾的承诺,又要推行美国价值观,还要让美国乃至世界经济按美国逻辑发展,中国在以上诸多问题上与他利益相左,到现在似乎有点积怨太深的味道,中美政治大幅改观就像美国经济一样需要奇迹,奥巴马的总统政治生涯想要得到延续也同样如此。
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