Obama May Lose in 2012

Issues like foreign policy are a luxury for the common American voter. Except for a minority, no one else in the U.S., a country that is almost as big as a continent, cares about what happens in the world. This is a major reason why Bill Clinton won the presidential election in 1992, despite the fact that father Bush pursued one of the most successful periods of foreign policy in U.S. history.

Let’s briefly recap the foreign policy of father Bush: The Cold War was over, and the U.S. had supreme hegemony, the Iron Curtain in the middle of Europe was knocked down, Germany was reunited, Russia had started to become democratic, the Oslo Peace Process had begun in the Middle East, and Saddam Hussein had been forced back out of Kuwait by a coalition that was supported by all the countries of the world. Yet, there was one problem that father Bush could not solve — the economy.

In 1991, the economy of the U.S. was in recession. Unemployment was rising, and the stock market was in decline. However, things were not as bad as Jimmy Carter’s term in the 1970s, which had both stagnation and inflation.

Nevertheless, the Democrats analyzed the situation accurately: “It’s the economy, stupid!” became the slogan of the Clinton election campaign. The economy was the only area that Bush was not successful in, and the economy was much more important than foreign policy to voters. Consequently, Bill Clinton, who was a governor of a state no one even knows the name of, won the elections by having a slogan such as, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

George W. Bush winning the 2004 elections is another piece of evidence that to the Americans, the economy is a lot more important than foreign policy. As you remember, son Bush was ignorant and a lot weaker than his father in foreign policy. After Sept. 11, 2001, which created a big shock and devastated the U.S., the invasion of Iraq, which had nothing to do with the attack, was carried out — a terrible mistake of Bush. Through the invasion of Iraq, George W. Bush brought down the reputation of the U.S. in the eyes of the world. It was hard to think about a worse president than Bush in terms of foreign policy. However, America elected Bush again for the second time in 2004 in front of the world, which was a big shock for everyone except the U.S.

If you ask why, the answer is very simple: “It’s the economy, stupid!” Son Bush was lucky in his economic policy, even though his foreign policy was a fiasco, in contrast to his father’s. The economy of the U.S. has indicated positive signals since 2002.

The economy of the U.S. in 2004 grew 4 percent, and the unemployment rate was around 5 percent. Consequently, George W. Bush did not lose the 2004 elections because of his economic policy. Let’s come back to the present. The people of the U.S. brought Obama to the White House with big hopes. The anger of people toward Bush’s term played a major role behind why Obama won the 2008 elections. As you remember, the crisis of real estate began in 2007, and the banking system was on the verge of collapse during Bush’s term. However, Obama has been a president only for three years, and people have naturally found him responsible for the ongoing economic crisis. In addition, on the one hand there is a growing budget deficit and unemployment, which is close to 10 percent, while on the other hand, the stock market has collapsed in the last two weeks, and there are unresolved battles in Congress.

The last straw is Standard & Poor’s’ embarrassing reevaluation of the U.S.’ credit rating, which left Obama with no choice. As if these problems are not enough, there has been no significant achievement in foreign policy either. The U.S. is still spending billions of dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan every single day. In addition, there are ongoing crises in Libya, Syria and Iran, a series of endless conflicts in the pipeline.

When we look at all these issues, we see that what Bush left behind for Obama is a wreckage. Yet, people do not consider these reasons. Republicans who hate Obama and have been getting ready for the 2012 elections have started saying: “It is the economy, stupid.”