Will the Sino-American War Begin on the Sea?

China continues to rapidly build up its military strength. Aug. 10 saw the commissioning of the first Chinese aircraft carrier, the Shi Lang. This is only the beginning of an ambitious Chinese program to strengthen its navy. However, against whom will the Celestial Empire’s aircraft carrier be deployed?

The process of China’s military strengthening of the sea should be considered in the overall context of rising Chinese power. According to foreign experts, in 2008 China was second in the world in terms of military spending, after the United States.

The Chinese navy is now also considered the second largest after the U.S. Until recently it was the thought that although the Chinese navy had a global impact, it clearly could not beat the U.S. Indeed, as we know, quantitative indicators are not a guarantee of victory; especially as many of China’s warships are obsolete and need to be replaced, if not undergo a major overhaul.

Before the Shi Lang, China did not have any aircraft carriers, whilst the U.S had 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers in service, with another soon to be launched. U.S.-Sino relations had begun to deteriorate in the late 1980s, parallel to the decline and collapse of the Soviet Union.

During the Cold War era, the main rival of the United States in the Pacific was the Soviet Union, but now in its place has been taken over by China. But even then, the Chinese Communist leadership had dreamed that the Celestial Empire would eventually replace “the Soviet revisionists.” That did not only mean an increased role for China in the global economy, but also in international politics. In order to support China’s ambitions modern armed forces were needed, and with that a special place was held by the navy. The presence of an aircraft carrier in its arsenal will solve the problem of protecting its strategic interests far from home and is also an essential feature of a superpower.

Back in 2000, Pentagon analysts developed a document titled “Asia 2025,” which dealt with five scenarios of armed conflict between the United States and China. According to American military experts, in the future the Celestial Empire may be able to challenge America because its military and economic potential may exceed the power of the U.S.

Chinese preparation has not gone unnoticed in the U.S. In 2000, the Pentagon report to Congress explicitly stated that China’s increasing military strength was in preparation for a possible war with the U.S. over Taiwan.

According to military experts, “if the U.S protects Taiwan, then China would draw all necessary tools to damage the opposing side.”*

As pointed out by the U.S. military, the policy of accelerated modernization and strengthening of the navy was undertaken by Beijing following the bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999.

However, other than the Taiwan issue there are other equally pressing issues for China. They include the dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu), the dispute with Vietnam over the Paracel Islands and finally, the struggle for the Spratly archipelago, which is strategically important for several nations of Southeast Asia. Of course, behind the backs of many opponents of China is the United States.

The growth in tensions off the coast of the Celestial Empire is attributed to the clashes and dynamics of American and Chinese sailors. In 1996, there was quite a major confrontation between the American aircraft carrier group and the Chinese navy near Taiwan. International military experts acknowledged that it almost caused a serious clash between the two powers. According to U.S. documents, the U.S. Navy prevented the penetration of Chinese warships to the coast of Taiwan, which required several warning missile launches.

Ten years later, in October 2006, an incident caused a stir near the Japanese island of Okinawa. At that time, the American aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk received a shock when a Chinese Song class submarine unexpectedly surfaced, at a distance from the aircraft carrier after it had successfully remained out of sight from the carrier’s escorts. In combat conditions, the U.S. aircraft carrier would have been torpedoed.

This situation clearly demonstrated an increase in the combat capability of the Chinese navy. Prior to that, it was believed that China’s submarines were too noisy to be overlooked by modern American acoustic systems. But the Americans were forced to revise their estimates.

A year later, in November 2007, a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait occurred over two days between the U.S. aircraft carrier group and the Chinese navy. Judging by U.S. sources, the Pentagon once again had to restrain Chinese seamen who were trying to approach Taiwan’s shores.

And in June 2009 in the South China Sea, a Chinese submarine at full speed collided with a U.S. underwater sonar array, which had also failed to detect the submarine in time.

In last two years incidents at sea have regularly occurred on the Chinese island of Hainan, where the Chinese nuclear submarines are based. Chinese seamen have periodically expelled their overly inquisitive American counterparts.

As for China, the appearance of its own aircraft carrier demonstrates its ambitions in the oceans. And what we are seeing is just the beginning. The Celestial Empire is preparing to place its own naval base in the Indian Ocean, which gives Pakistan an ally. This is a real challenge to the U.S., which has declared the Persian Gulf a zone of its own strategic interests.

However, a direct consequence of increasing the power of the Chinese navy is the beginning of an arms race with its neighbors. The implementation of carrier-based programs has not gone unnoticed in India, which has also markedly strengthened its naval forces, and is expected to launch India’s first aircraft carrier at the beginning of the coming year. Vietnam has also significantly strengthened its navy by commissioning additional submarines.

The increase in Chinese power at sea has also not gone unnoticed in Russia, as the Celestial Empire has also not hidden its ambitions for the division of the Arctic resources, even though it has no direct outlet to the Arctic.

Note that Beijing does not intend to be limited to only one aircraft carrier. The commissioning of the Chinese aircraft carrier can be considered just the beginning of an ambitious program to build aircraft carriers, which was in fact begun in 1985 with the purchase of the retired Australian carrier HMAS Melbourne. The skeleton of the first Chinese aircraft carrier was also acquired abroad in Ukraine. But now new ships of this class will be built only in the Celestial Empire’s shipyards.

China is now working on two more aircraft carriers which will launch in 2015. However, they will be noticeably inferior to the American aircraft carriers, and suffice it to say that they will not be installing nuclear, but steam turbine engines in them.

However, in 2015, the Chinese expect to launch a nuclear-powered attack aircraft carrier that will not be inferior to equivalent U.S. carriers. U.S. military experts believe that China will build at least five of these carriers in the future. This once again underlines the fact that talking to China from a position of power will eventually become impossible. With what can the U.S. counter this? This will remain an open question, given the financial problems they are confronted with today.

*Editor’s Note: This quote, while translated accurately, could not be verified.