The Dragon Is Still Soaring but at a Lower Altitude

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 8 August 2011
by Lin Jian-Shan (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Alice Cwern. Edited by .

Edited by Jennifer Pietropaoli

 

 

The U.S. debt-ceiling crisis has made the world question and worry about America’s economic growth and its global leadership. Some have compared it to the situation of Great Britain after World War II: The dragon that had soared in the sky for a whole century fell to the ground and became a relatively weak country.

The question of whether or not the United States has lost its role as a world leader and fallen into a decline is a worthy one. But U.S. power cannot be solely determined by its financial index or credit; we must also consider the following ten economic strengths it possesses.

America Can Succeed Quickly

First, there is economic momentum, in other words, the GDP and the GDP per capita. According to the World Bank, the United States made up 23.4 percent of the world’s total GDP in 2010, while Japan only made up 5.46 percent, and the EU made up another 25.9 percent (with Germany making up 3.32 percent, France 2.58 percent, and Britain 2.25 percent), and China made up 5.88 percent. In the 28 years between 1980 and 2008, the GDP growth rate of the United States was the highest among all developed countries. The GDP per capita was US$40,800 in the United States, while Japan’s was 83 percent and Germany’s and France’s were both 92 percent of that of the United States.

America’s significant proportion of the world’s GDP has provided the country an edge over other developed countries. It has a faster economic growth and is wealthier overall. There is still a huge gap in economic scale and wealth between newly developed countries and the United States, and it will take a long time for anyone to surpass them.

Secondly, labor productivity determines the competitive strength of a country and the corporations. The United States still has the lead among all developed countries. In the 60’s of last century, Japan and 15 countries within the European Union once had a tremendous growth on labor productivity of 8 percent and 5 percent respectively, but it had been slowing down ever since. Meanwhile, Japan and Europe also do not surpass the United States in creativity. Among developed countries, China’s labor productivity is only 15% of that of the United States. There is still a long way to go until China can catch up.

Next there is technological power. No country has yet significantly surpassed the United States on technology research when it comes to funding and statistics. The United States also has the fastest growth in number of patent registrations and makes up of 38 percent of the world’s new technology patents. Its publications are also the most cited, at 63 percent of the world total.

Next let’s look at human capital. The United States was the first country in the world to implement compulsory education, which established the backbone that fuels the country’s innovations. Colleges in the United States are highly competitive, and research facilities and laboratories supply a large amount of outstanding scientists. In the United States, funding for higher education is 2.4 percent of the GDP, while other Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries only spend 31.5 percent of that amount. The federal government is responsible for 32 percent of the total spending on higher education, while only making up 7 percent of the spending in middle and high schools. As a result, colleges have been more successful than middle and high schools in the United States.

Fifth, there is public finance. Although the revenue of the United States is relatively low compare to its GDP, its GDP and its financial strength is still the top in the world.

There is also financial strength. The financial strength of the United States comes from well-funded, diverse financial institutes and a large-scale, active financial market. Although the financial crisis hurt the United States’ finances, it also redirected the focus of the financial sector back to the path of the true economy. In fact, it did not affect the United States’ position as the leading figure of global finance.

Next is main currency. As the U.S. dollar remains the major currency used in government reserves, trading and price benchmarks, the United States is still the most significant and influential country in the worldeconomy.

In September 2009 prior to the financial crisis, the world’s total reserve consisted of 61.6 percent of U.S. dollars, 27.7 percent Euro, 3.2 percent Japanese yen, 4.3 percent British pound, and 3 percent other currencies. The U.S. dollar also made up 62 percent of the world’s currencies. There will be no threat to the position of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

The eighth reason is international enterprises. The globalization of American enterprises has significantly increased the competitive strength of the United States. Investments from America’s international enterprises play a major role in the global economy. In 1990, the United States led developed countries and made up 35 percent of the world’s Foreign Direct Investment, three times as much as Britain, which was in second place. Although the amount diminished to 22.7 percent in 2010 after the global financial crisis, it still clocked in at double that of France, which was in the second place. America’s international enterprises have great competitive strength globally.

America also has their work force. The increase in population in the United States is also a contributing factor to its positive economic forecast. In 2010, the population of the United States was 312 million (4.5 percent of the global population). This was due to immigration and a high birth rate among immigrants. Meanwhile, only 12 percent of its population was over 65 year old, with an average age of 36. Unlike most developed countries, it is not in a midst of an aging population, which provides a beneficial environment for continuous prosperity in the United States.

Finally, they have their natural resources. With its good climate, good water supply and the abundance of lands and mineral resources, the United States is a country with plentiful natural resources. The lack of “Dutch Disease” in the United States also maximizes its advantage in natural resources.

The Strength of the United States

As long as the above economic factors remain true, it will be extremely difficult for any developed country or emerging market to surpass the United States within the next 50 years. It is premature to say that the power of the United States is in a decline.

Back in 1958, the impact of the Sputnik crisis led J.F.K. to prioritize U.S. production policy. He focused resources and effort onto the recovery of manufacturers, traders and the consumer’s market instead of solely relying on the financial market to strengthen the country’s power and vitality. If Obama takes notes from history, the resurgence and revival of the United States will arrive.

As long as the American dollar and America’s debt remain the world’s standard currency and investment, and as long as the United States remains the most profitable consumers’ market to the new markets; the final destination of international investment markets; the shelter (not a perfect one, but the only one) for countries that suffer from natural disasters and wars; and the leader in technological innovations and human capital; the dragon called America, although it may have to lower its flying altitude, will still be flying in the sky in the next half of century. Europe will remain the only fallen dragon with regrets.


美國債限風波,使全世界對美國的經濟成長及其全球國勢地位,產生極大的疑慮與擔憂,認為已接近二次大戰前後的英國,從一整個世紀的飛龍在天,即將跌落凡塵成為亢龍有悔的相對弱勢國家。美國國力是否真的就此失去領袖國際地位,走向衰落,是很值得各方爭議的大哉問題,今天要論斷美國國力興衰,不能單看財政指標或債信水準就遽然定奪,而必須參照當前美國經濟實力地位的10個面向狀況來予以論證為宜。

 超越美 一時難成

 第一,經濟動能,即國內生產毛額及人均GDP:依據世界銀行指標,就單一國家看,2010年美國占世界GDP總值的23.4%,日本僅5.46%,歐盟占25.9%,其中德國3.32%,法國2.58%,英國2.25%,中國5.88%;從1980年到2008年的28年中,美國GDP年均成長都略高於其他主要先進國家;人均所得,2010年美國是40,800美元,日本僅相當其83%,德法同為92%。美國相對其他主要先進國家的優勢,在於占世界GDP比重大,經濟成長速度快,富裕程度較高。新興市場國家在經濟規模和富裕程度上,與美國的差距仍然極大,要在規模上趕超美國,需要更長時間。

 第二,勞動生產率決定一國企業競爭力及國家競爭力。美國在先進國家中處於領先地位,上世紀60年代日本和歐洲曾有一段勞動生產率飛漲時期,當時日本勞動生產率年均成長8%,歐盟15國5%,此後卻放慢;同時,在創新上,日歐也趕不上美國;在新興經濟體中,中國勞動生產率只達美國的15%,中國要想趕上美國,還有很長的路要走。

 第三,科技能量。其他國家的研發支出、科技團隊都未能顯著超越美國,創新專利的成長也落後於美國,全球技術發明專利中,美國占38%,在被引用最多的出版物中,美國占63%。

 第四,人力資本。美國是世界上第一個實施義務教育的國家,建立了支撐國家創新的最重要基礎設施。美國大學都有很強的競爭力,尤其研究院和實驗室,培養出大量傑出科技人才。美國大學經費占GDP的2.4%,其他OECD國家平均僅31.5%;聯邦政府承擔大學開支的 32%,但只承擔中小學開支的7%,以致美國大學辦得比中小學要好。

 第五,財政實力。儘管美國財政收入占GDP比重較低,但每年創造的GDP總值居世界之冠,財力仍然是全世界最雄厚的。

 第六,金融實力。美國的金融實力表現在豐沛的資金來源、強大而多樣的金融機構、以及規模龐大、交易活躍的金融市場。海嘯重創美國金融,但也把金融業引向為實物經濟服務的正軌,而且也未根本改變美國金融在全世界的優勢地位。

 第七,主權貨幣。美元作為全球主要的儲備貨幣、交易工具和計價基準,繼續對全球象徵經濟擁有最強大的支配力。

 海嘯發生後的2009年9月,美元占國際儲備比重為61.6%,歐元27.7%,日圓3.2%,英鎊4.3%,其他貨幣僅3%左右;美元在國際清算中的地位更高,占62%。美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位,在短時間內根本不會受到威脅。

 第八,多國企業,是美國企業全球化戰略的構成,極大提高了美國的全球競爭力。美國跨國公司的對外直接投資,在全球占有突出地位。1990年世界FDI美國占35%,居先進國家之首,為第二位英國的3倍多;2010年世界金融海嘯重創後,比重雖下降到22.7%,但比起第二位的法國,仍然高出兩倍多。美國跨國公司在全世界更加具有很強的競爭力。

 第九,社會動能。美國是人口成長呈上升趨勢的國家,也是經濟能夠持續看好的因素,2010年美國人口3.12億(占全球4.5%),主要來源是移民和移民較高的出生率;同時65歲以上的老年人占人口比重僅12%,全美平均年齡為36歲,高齡化問題在先進國家中是難得少見的不嚴重,這也無疑為美國經濟社會的永續繁榮,創造了有利條件。

 第十,自然資源。美國在氣候、水源、土地、礦藏等方面都得天獨厚,自然資源豐富的客觀條件,並未導致「荷蘭病(Dutch Disease)」的發生,益使美國自然資源的優勢,得到較充分發揮。

 美國力

 這些面向的經濟實力因素,使其他先進國家或新興市場經濟國家,要想在50年之內趕超美國,都還是極其不容易的,現在就談美國國力衰落,恐怕為時猶早。

 這次美國債限風波,對於歐巴馬是否能像1958年「斯潑尼克」對甘迺迪產生的大衝擊,刺激美國國政策略回復到造餅優先的路,將振興激勵經濟的資源與努力,不再單放在「金融」籃子裡,轉為大力重振實物經濟的工商企業部門及民生消費部門,以有效強化其實力與活力,則美國國力的再起與復興,應是可以期待的。

 只要美元美債繼續是世界基準通貨、美國內需市場還是新興世界最肥沃的蜜奶之地、國際投資的終極站、天災人禍兵燹意外的避風港(儘管破爛,仍是唯一)、科技創新及人才資本持續領先,即使是這條龍的飛航高度漸低,但在可預見的半個世紀之內,飛龍依然在天,有悔的亢龍,恐怕祇在老歐洲。
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