Hard Choice between Democracy and Stability

The American political leadership is increasingly worried about developments in Egypt. The turmoil, which includes growing demonstrations and escalating violence, underscores an old American dilemma.

The United States wants to spread democracy throughout the world, but it also wants stability to make sure that its security policies and economical interests are not jeopardized. The United States does not want to see democracy in the Middle East leading to the strengthening of Islamist forces.

The danger for America is that Egypt and other allied countries in the Middle East may choose a path that will obstruct the fight against terrorism, threaten the oil supply and further isolate Israel.

The uncertainty regarding developments in Egypt is felt by the entire U.S. political field, from Barack Obama in the White House to Republican presidential candidates and members of Congress. However, voices on the right also express fears that Christian Egyptians may be about to fall victim to outright persecution by Muslim groups.

There is limited room for maneuvering; each of America’s options right now contains contradictions.

On the one hand, America could make its sizable support of the Egyptian military — $1.3 billion per year — conditional on the military regime increasing democratic freedoms. That, however, could damage Egypt’s already fragile economy and further undermine political stability.

On the other hand, America could reach out to the Muslim Brotherhood, which, following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, is expected to make great gains in the parliamentary elections scheduled for later this week.

There are hopes that more liberal and moderate forces will gain the upper hand, but as the oldest and probably most influential Islamist group in the region, the Muslim Brotherhood has several options; American analysts admit that there is no safe bet as to which way the movement will go.

One cautionary example can be found in Gaza, where Hamas — deemed a terrorist organization by the United States — is strengthening its position in the light of the Muslim Brotherhood’s growing influence not just in Egypt but in the entire region. In the meantime, Fatah, which leads the Palestinian government in the West Bank, seems to be losing ground after the apparently failed attempt to apply for UN membership.

America has hindered the peace process by not giving enough weight to Israeli interests. This strategy, however, has backfired against the Americans.

Hamas, which is more anti-American and more closely related to the Muslim Brotherhood, is made stronger at the expense of the more cooperative Fatah — a trend that may grow stronger after the Egyptian election.

And so, American analysts looking into the future make the somber prediction that the Arab Spring, literally as well as figuratively, may be turning into an Arab Winter.