Ending the War in Iraq Will Decrease US Influence in the Middle East; Iraq’s Outlook Is Not Optimistic

U.S. President Obama announced on Dec. 14 that the last wave of troops will be pulling out of Iraq, thus officially ending the war in Iraq. Analysts claim that the U.S. invasion of Iraq has caused Iran’s influence to grow in the Middle East, whereas US influence is not as great as it had been. After the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the outlook in Iraq cannot be optimistic. Whether it is the economic or security situation, the outlook is worrisome. After the withdrawal from Iraq, the war in Afghanistan will become the focal point for the U.S.; commentators speculate that Obama’s chances of being reelected will highly depend on the progress of the Afghanistan War.

Obama Announces the End of the Nine-Year War in Iraq

On Dec. 14 in Fort Bragg, N.C., Obama gave a speech to the military base soldiers, announcing that the last wave of troops will pull out of Iraq in the next few days with their “heads held high.” With this announcement, the nine-year war in Iraq officially came to an end.

Obama said, “Over the last few months, the final work of leaving Iraq has been done. Dozens of bases with American names… have been closed down or turned over to the Iraqis. Thousands of tons of equipment have already been packed up and shipped out.” And in the coming few days, the last wave of troops will pull out of Iraq.

Obama stated that the last U.S. troops “will cross the border out of Iraq with their heads held high.” They will become part of history, as “[o]ne of the most extraordinary chapters in the history of the American military will come to an end.”

America’s Influence in the Middle East Will Be Reduced

U.S. combat troops stationed in Iraq will all pull out by the end of December. The BBC commented that the Iraq War caused a large number of casualties and completely changed the strategic balance in the Middle East. The political instability in Arab countries further complicates the situation in the Middle East; there is no single force that can take charge of the situation. U.S.’ influence in the Middle East undoubtedly will be reduced.

Under former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s reign, Iraq was the main military force in the Middle East and Iran’s main rival. Thus, when Hussein’s regime fell when the U.S. first attacked Iraq, the U.S. essentially defeated an important competitor. The U.S. is stuck in a precarious situation in the short run: Iran has clearly benefited from this war and has become a rising power in the Middle East, caused by its growing influence in the Arab world.

Critics in the U.S. blame Obama for ending the war in Iraq so quickly. They fear that this will encourage the ever active militants in Iraq’s neighbor, Iran. They comment that Iran’s role in the development of Iraq’s new government cannot be ignored; removing Saddam has clearly empowered Iran.

America has implied that it hopes to move its focus from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region. However, its initial strategies are unclear, which suggests that the U.S. cannot wash its hands of the turbulent Middle East. Analysts claim that, in any case, U.S. influence in the region has already deteriorated.

War in Afghanistan Will Become the Focal Point

Ending the war in Iraq was one of Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign promises. Critics accuse Obama of using the war in Iraq as a tool to get reelected.

Obama has always been opposed to the war in Iraq. Since he has been in power, he has quickly removed himself from “Bush’s war” and instead has pushed the Pentagon to focus more on Afghanistan and the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. He claims that this is one of the neglected areas in the war with al-Qaida. Critics now view the war in Afghanistan as “Obama’s war” and believe his chances of being reelected will depend more on the progress of the war in Afghanistan, not Iraq.

It is Hard to be Optimistic about Iraq’s Future

After the U.S. troops pull out, they will leave behind a scarred Iraq. The economic and security situation both look bleak. Reuters reported in November that Iraq’s unemployment rate is 15 percent, and 28 percent of the population only have part-time jobs. According to Iraqi government statistics, a quarter of the population of 30 million is struggling below the poverty line.

Iraq has held two congressional elections and provincial council elections, all executed through a free and fair process. New newspapers, TV stations, and institutions have appeared; political parties and non-governmental organizations are also allowed. However, are these what the Iraqi people want or need?

Young Iraqis believe that they can speak freely and not be afraid. They can protest and have the freedom to vote. They clearly have a democracy. These did not exist in Iraq before 2003. However, they also stress the other side of things: the crimes and tyrannical cruelty of the U.S. that have brought suffering to the local people.

The Iraqi people are divided in their opinions on the U.S. troop withdrawal. Some believe that if there isn’t enough U.S. troop support that the improved security situation will quickly end. [Some say:] “We need a national government that protects its people.” [And others say]: “We need the U.S. to help combat sectarian militias and al-Qaida.”

A tribal leader from the western province said that the sooner the U.S. forces withdraw, the better it will be for tribes and for the fate of Iraq. “We hope that the U.S. military support left behind protects only Americans and not the Iraqi people. U.S. troops stationed here are not beneficial for us. I believe that Iraq has many honest and able people who can effectively lead our country; we don’t need America’s protection or support.”