America Withdraws from Iraq and Is Replaced by Chaos

Immediately after the withdrawal of the last American soldiers, a series of terrorist acts occurred in Iraq, and a serious crisis has arisen in the government. The country is poorly prepared for independence, says Daniel Sheshkevic.

The global community reacted with cautious optimism to the withdrawal of the last American troops from Iraq last Sunday (Dec. 18, 2011). At first glance, it seemed that, nearly nine years after the American invasion and liberation from the yoke of dictator Saddam Hussein, the country was more or less on the correct path toward its sovereign future. But now it is becoming clear that that was a mistaken assumption. More than 50 people are dead as a result of one of the worst series of attacks in recent months, and an escalating crisis in the government has once again brought Iraq to the brink of civil war.

It is obvious that there is a direct connection between the recent attacks and the simultaneous aggravation of the government crisis. The terrorist acts were directed against members of all ethnic groups and were committed in both the Shiite and Sunni quarters of Baghdad. It seems that these crimes are traced back to the terrorists of the group al-Qaida in Iraq, who wanted to make their presence felt immediately after the departure of the Americans.

On the Brink of Religious War

Nevertheless, the attacks could play into the hands of Shiite Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, who accused Sunni Vice President Tarek Al-Hashemi of aiding terrorists, signed a warrant for his arrest and ordered government-controlled law enforcement organizations to declare him a fugitive. Hashemi fled to the Kurdish region in northern Iraq, where the arms of justice cannot reach him from Baghdad.

However, the terrorist acts and the government crisis have something in common. They demonstrate that security in Iraq is just as shaky as the political situation. The country is on the brink of a religious war, and now there are no more occupying forces to stop it.

Shiites Attempt to Consolidate Power

Under U.S. leadership, the religious groups in Iraq agreed to a shaky distribution of authority: The Prime Minister — a Shiite — is supposed to have one Sunni and one Kurd among his deputies. The same applies to the Parliament Speaker. However, Prime Minister Al-Maliki, who is oriented toward Iran, declared an end to the quota. For him, the main thing is to concentrate all authority in his own hands. It is no accident that he ordered the arrest warrant for Hashemi — one of the few Sunnis who generally participated in the political reconstruction of Iraq — exactly one day after the departure of the last American soldiers. And government television immediately showed video recordings of the alleged “confessions” of Hashemi’s bodyguard.

America’s Missed Opportunity

All of this came about because, at the time the United States arrived in Iraq, they did not pay adequate attention to the establishment of a structure of lawful government and independent media or to the necessary process of reconciliation in the sphere of civil society. The main thing was that Iraq gained the ability to independently manage its own security; such was the short-sighted policy of the United States. But even that goal, as much as one can judge from the information coming out of Iraq, was hardly achieved.

Contrary to all recommendations of leading military specialists, Washington, for lack of financial means, refused to keep even a limited military contingent in Iraq. The consequences could be fatal. In Washington there is no real understanding of the historically-rooted contradictions of the society, which has only been unified by the harsh regime of a dictator.

Nine years after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Shiites and Sunnis are engaged in a bitter struggle for power. The national reconciliation of the past few years, it turns out, was only on the surface, slapped together without any strong support in society. Media loyal to the government have unleashed nationwide persecution of the Sunni minority, and terror once again bares its rotten teeth. America departs, and chaos steps into its place — a scenario which many feared could come to pass faster than even the staunchest pessimists predicted.