The Beginning of the Republicans

The highlight of the day took place at the primaries in Iowa, a conservative state, when Mitt Romney attained a narrow lead over Rick Santorum, currently the runner-up. Although the future conservative candidate will be appointed at the National Convention, there is still a long way to go until then.

The Republican Party needs a leader who will unite the diverse factions that are competing for supremacy. The tea party was the big surprise during the last elections, when their ultraconservative proposals brought about a victorious outcome in the House of Representatives and almost achieved the same results in the Senate. Despite their presence in Congress, their vengeance against the government resulted in a stalemate on crucial issues on the legislative agenda that are extremely important to the country such as the fiscal budget and deficit. Paradoxically, so as to satisfy their voters, they have had to partly accept a lack of credibility that politicians in Washington inspire. Hence, Obama’s campaign should flourish from the differing tendencies that stem from American conservatism.

The U.S. has quite a complex electoral system. This system requires that both parties must undergo a lengthy process before immersing themselves in internal elections. They need to have passed an experimental campaign, a warm-up so to speak, where their expectations rise and fall. For example, Michele Bachmann stepped down after her defeat in Iowa, although she once had fluttered the tea party’s flags and managed a lead in the polls. Another candidate, the African-American Herman Cain, collapsed and withdrew after facing serious questioning related to sexual scandals. Furthermore, Rick Perry, a wealthy and influential candidate, fell after he had his time in the limelight. Public opinion and its flying daggers do not forgive and forget easily.

So this is how the situation presents itself. Romney aims high since he is the [Iowa] winner despite the narrow margin of eight votes. Moreover, next week in the primaries in New Hampshire, a more centrist state, he has a better chance to repeat his victory.

The case of Santorum is still unclear because he could either blossom briefly or create a snowball effect that would boost his popularity in other states where he is otherwise unknown. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are the third and fourth competitors still standing. Ron Paul, an older candidate who is a libertarian conservative, combines openly conservative proposals such as reduction of the state to its simplest form with others such as the legalization of drugs and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from any global conflict. Gingrich, meanwhile ,has a shaky standing since he has been criticized about his conservative credentials. This is because he had once supported stances on issues such as on global warming that aligned more with the Democratic Party.

What is next? It is too early to forecast what will result from this long road left to travel. Romney got off to a good start and will likely succeed in New Hampshire, however it will not be easy in South Carolina, where the party’s right wing considers Romney a centrist because of his past tenure as governor of Massachusetts. Republicans shall have to decide at this point if they support someone who follows these ideological paths or if they will go with an ultraconservative candidate who falls under the same group as Santorum. Alternatively, an unknown candidate may be waiting for the opportunity to enter the race within the party, or to create a split by running as an independent tea party candidate.

President Obama, who has ably leaned more towards the center, calmly awaits the decline of his opponents. Meanwhile, he observes the improvement of the economic signs and the popularity rates that will allow for his re-election.