Benchmark: Mitt, Newt, Rick and the Others

One primary and two caucuses were held last Tuesday in three fairly populated and representative states, but none of them aimed to choose delegates pledging to vote for a single candidate at the Republican Convention this coming summer.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum somewhat shockingly carried all three states, but this triumph should be considered relative due to their advisory nature. Furthermore, the two favorites in the race for the nomination, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, did not invest as much time and energy in those states.

Mr. Santorum, a devout Catholic generally associated with the right wing of the GOP, had won the Iowa caucus, which is traditionally considered a very good sign for a candidate. Tuesday’s “hat trick” of victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri could give Santorum some momentum, which he had lost in the interim.

Santorum hopes above all that the trio of victories will convince donors to become more generous toward his campaign. This is possible, but far from certain at this stage of the contest, unless the command is given from the higher-ups of the GOP.

Reputation

For the moment, Romney continues to lead Santorum and Gingrich in most polls, despite having a very hard time convincing the GOP’s rowdy right wing – or more precisely, the populist fringe of that wing – of his conservative quality and depth.

He is still unable to shed his reputation of aristocrat, born with a silver spoon in his mouth who, extreme of extremes, defends his “liberal” positions – that is to say, somewhat to the left – on certain issues. On a social issue, for example, he has already defended the right to abortion. On a socio-economic issue: As governor of Massachusetts, he pushed through a health care plan rather similar to the one that President Obama got passed at the federal level.

For campaign purposes, he has noticeably shifted toward the right, renouncing most of his former values in hopes of winning over the very conservative base of his party. A self-proclaimed “conservative” commentator in Newsweek recently reproached Romney of his too big or too clumsy “adaptability.” In fact, sometimes one feels like comparing Romney to a Transformer toy.

The columnist in question drew a parallel in the Republican candidate’s not very convincing flip-flopping to the more successful evolution of President Obama. The latter lost some of his allure as university elite in finally giving up being “Uniter-in-Chief” at all costs, in order to side more openly with the middle class. He now speaks concretely to this important part of the electorate about things that interest them: jobs, of course, but also services that a modern state should sometimes ensure.

To the Far Right

During this time, Mitt Romney has not been content merely making a turn to the right. Rather, he has multiplied the negative statements and ads, a Newt Gingrich specialty, in order to beat Gingrich to the finish line. The problem for Mr. Romney is that if he effectively carries the nomination, he will have to return to the center if he wants to get the keys to the White House. In light of what happened Tuesday, there remains as well this alternative scenario: The Republican establishment believes Rick Santorum’s chances against Obama are better than those of the other two men and give him the means to campaign, which implies that Santorum will need to talk less of his most conservative social positions that turn off most voters in the center.