Dangerous Side of Strategic Alliance

Hot-tempered statements by Georgian politicians and experts cause concern throughout the Southern Caucasus

Mikheil Saakashvili recently opened two hospitals, but society once again posed the question “Who are they for?” and renewed discussions of war against Iran and Georgia’s possible assistance to anti-Iran forces.

The danger is not groundless. Judging by the statements of representatives of the branches of authority, the question of Georgia’s position in case of a war against Iran can be considered closed. This country, it seems, is the only one in the region that — upon receipt of the corresponding “invitation” — has the strength and capabilities to stand alongside the U.S. It is a dangerous preparation. Compared to the conduct of other regional neighbors, the proviso of the ruling “National Movement’s” leaders — that Georgia cannot afford neutrality — is surprising.

Turkey (a NATO member, incidentally) does not support all of the U.S. intentions concerning Iran. Azerbaijan, whose relationship with Iran sometimes acquires an acute character, is extremely reticent (not counting some ambiguous statements by a couple of deputies). Armenia stated that a war with Iran would be completely impermissible. Of course, it is hard to imagine a day when Washington will ask Yerevan for permission to carry out a strike upon the population of Teheran, but its position deserves respect for its rationality and concern for security, and it fits in with the concept of “good neighborliness.”

It is clear that the national debt exceeding $6 billion, and other assistance from Washington, does not leave much maneuvering room for Tbilisi. But that hardly requires it to “run ahead of everyone else on the planet.” To explain that this is just a desire to curry favor with their patron is naive. The field for speculation is vast: an insatiable ambition to stand in the ranks of world powers, to strengthen an alliance with the U.S. — that, in the perceptions of Georgian leaders, threats from the north have automatically declined — and hopes for a global redistribution of territory — a chance to restore territorial integrity, etc. One or the other — and the propaganda aired by government-controlled media is directed at preparing society for war in the region — it would seem that Georgia will be involved however much the U.S. may require.

Filled with modern equipment, but empty due to the high cost of medical care, the regional hospitals that they build and that Saakashvili so solemnly opens, are not the only assistance that Georgia might provide to the U.S. After all, a few years ago, in the presidential program, there was an item, “a hundred hospitals in one year,” and perhaps today it is being realized a bit late and has nothing to do with a possible war. The level and form of assistance depends on Turkey. If Ankara obstinately “goes its own way,” then Georgia’s airfields, ports (in which work was done to increase the depth and other infrastructure) could be offered to serve the anti-Iran forces. And finally, manpower will be important, when or if it gets to that point, considering the growing resistance of traditional American allies to send their forces anywhere. Keeping all of this in mind, military experts close to the government, who are analyzing the risks, nevertheless do not find them significant for Georgia. They explain their point of view in terms of Iran’s limited options, which they will have to use against the U.S. 5th Fleet and, apparently, Israel. Don’t fault them for their lack of logic. But no less noteworthy is the warning of General Hossein Salami, Commander in the Revolutionary Guard: “Any spot used by the enemy for hostile operations against Iran will be subjected to retaliatory aggression by our armed forces.”

It that happens, in a fight with several opponents, they will recognize impending doom and consequently rush at one another, trying to settle scores — if not with all of the offenders, then at least with one. The U.S. and its other allies are far away, and difficult for Teheran to reach. Its neighbors, not forgetting their allied obligations to Washington, should also remember that.