Independence from the American Friends

The greatest benefit of the current crisis between Egypt and the U.S. is that soon after its formation, the new Egyptian regime came to realize how flawed the nature of the relations between the two countries is, and hence the need to rebuild them on new foundations which ensure our own interests first.

Throughout the rule of the previous regime, instead of normal bilateral relations, there was a kind of total dependency. Even the transient crises were not the results of conflicting national interests but instead resulted from miscalculations related to the interests of the previous regime.

It was therefore not surprising that almost all the serious disagreements erupted when the Americans broached subjects such as democracy or human rights in Egypt. This in turn was another comical episode in the serial of bilateral relations. The U.S. has never been serious in its efforts to bring democracy to Egypt or in its concern over the abuse of Egyptians’ rights. The Egyptian regime was fully aware of that and the two parties kept on playing their ridiculous roles to fulfill their respective internal goals. Washington would issue reports condemning Egypt’s rights abuse records without following it with any punitive measures, while Cairo would condemn American interference into its internal affairs without taking any step that translates its heroic stance.

Although U.S. military aid to Egypt is considered a main reason why the relations over the last thirty years were characterized by dependency, it is not the only reason, because the relative value of the aid ($1.3 billion) has been constantly going down since the early eighties. And it does not represent a big share compared to the size of the GDP or the public budget, which amounts to 634 billion Egyptian pounds for this year. Moreover, the lack of increase in the value of the aid despite inflation and the annual increase in prices greatly reduces the size, value and quality of weapons and services that Egypt receives now compared to what it was receiving more than 30 years ago. Based on this, the withdrawal of this aid will not represent a big or painful loss for the national economy which is itself another aspect of Egypt’s dependence on the U.S.

According to statistics published by the World Bank and the U.S. Department of Commerce, the United States is Egypt’s main trade partner (for both imports and exports). In 2010, Egyptian imports from the U.S. amounted to $6.8 billion, more than from any other country. Next came China, with less than a half of this amount. It is not surprising then that our trade deficit with the U.S. is the highest, approaching $4 billion. I don’t know of a solid reason for tying our economic interests, and hence our national security, to the U.S. in such a way. The fundamentals of good planning require the diversification of import and export markets. We must also not ourselves provide a country with the power to exert pressure on us in the same way that the previous regime was dedicated to showing in various ways its loyalty and connection to the American master.

This is not a call for hostility towards, or to sever ties with, the U.S., but instead a call for finding a new form of normal, good and balanced relations as partners, which include the possibility of disagreement and a permanent readiness to accept its consequences.

We can learn much from China in our attempt to guarantee that national decision-making is independent of Washington through restructuring our U.S. ties. The Chinese experience particularly provides a model confirming that political and ideological differences and even hostile feelings are all obstacles that can be surmounted. Just like China, we need American technologies and investments. We also need their markets for our products. Despite this, China has its own independent national decision-making and uses its veto against America’s wishes. It spies on the U.S. without the latter declaring war on it. Instead, the U.S. invests $64 billion into more than 59,000 projects throughout China. On the other hand, Washington provides Taiwan with weapons without China severing ties with the U.S. and calling the U.S. the Great Satan. Instead, it sends 128,000 students to study in U.S. universities where they represent the biggest group of foreign students. Last year, the Chinese authorities were able to realize a trade surplus of $273 billion at the expense of the U.S. without bowing to the U.S. or staging fake dramas. This is politics and is interesting in all its complications and the opportunism of the participants. But politics remains the only language understood by the world today. And it is time we speak this same language with them.