Another Race, Another Voyage

On the same night, the former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney managed to avoid the humiliation of losing the primary in Michigan, his home state, and achieved a comfortable and convincing victory in Arizona. Under normal circumstances, it would have been a glorious journey to becoming the favorite for the Republican nomination. But after the twists and turns of the campaign within the past two weeks, Romney was not able to hide its rather bitter taste. “We didn’t win by a lot, but we won by enough, and that’s what counts,” said the candidate in a rather miserable commemoration.

Let’s not underestimate the significance of the result in Arizona, where Romney collected all of the available delegates. But the victory in Michigan was not enough to calm his critics and detractors, nor to remove the concerns of the Republican establishment about the obvious weaknesses of his candidacy. After nine rounds, four of which he won, Romney is still unable to grow his support base and simultaneously stop the independents, who sympathized with him and his program early on, from abandoning him.

The state of calamity among the Republican troops was avoided, but the dynamics of the race were not significantly altered, unlike what happened at the end of January after the primary in Florida. At the time, Romney came out stronger and “destroyed” Newt Gingrich’s competition along the way. The former speaker has since practically disappeared from the campaign and is now hoping for a fourth chance on Super Tuesday. But without standing out as an undoubted winner in Michigan, Romney only achieved a lengthier duel with Rick Santorum. Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, represents the most conservative fraction of the party and may have missed his opportunity to stand out and even claim his own status as the favorite. Romney’s candidacy however, was not seriously compromised.

Looking at the diversity of the electorate, at the peculiarities of the next states to vote and at poll indications, leads us to believe that the result on Super Tuesday will be a mixed one: Romney will win in New England, Gingrich hopes to win over the South and Santorum will probably win in Ohio — the most desirable prize. Nothing is for certain and the weariness of both winners and losers will only continue to benefit Barack Obama.