America Defeated: War onTerror at an Impasse

America cannot withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, but it can’t leave them there either.

The mass shooting of civilians by an American soldier in the area of Kandahar has called into question the whole system of cooperation between NATO and Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s president, Hamid Karzai, has now announced that he is not ready to sign a new agreement on strategic cooperation that would allow NATO troops to stay in the country until 2014.

The past few weeks have brought this Central Asian country to the brink of the conflict being exacerbated once more. The parties who bear the most blame for this are the NATO coalition troops. Initially, the Afghans strongly protested the public burning of the Quran by Western military personnel. Now, in addition to that, there is the story of the murders of local residents.

Reports about the deaths of Afghans were constant even before this. But those were mostly reports of pilots erroneously dropping bombs on villages or of technical problems with drones. This time, a soldier has methodically shot 16 peaceful residents to death.

All of this shows that the coalition and its soldiers are chronically tired of this fruitless war. President Barack Obama’s promises to withdraw troops in the near future remain ephemeral because the U.S. thinks that they will have to continue sending soldiers to patrol Afghanistan’s provinces for a long time. In a year, when they have their presidential elections and the campaign is in full swing, the White House will not want to take any decisive actions in this country. After all, the president is accused of weakness in the international arena and of not knowing how to defend Washington’s interests. Retreat in Afghanistan would only lead to a drop in his ratings.

On the other hand, in the opinion of analyst William Barrow of the Council on Foreign Policy, the coalition countries — and increasingly, the U.S. — have recently begun to experience postwar syndrome. “We are seeing the same movement that we saw during the Vietnam War years. Today, military actions are not so different in their intensity, but they have continued almost 10 years now, and the country is tired of it,” he tells Glavred.* Such tragedies could soon be repeated, so the Americans need to take radical measures in Afghanistan in the near term.

Finally, Afghanistan itself is seething over the shooting in Kandahar. A growing percentage of the country’s population sees the coalition forces as occupiers and sympathizes with the Taliban. Even the official governments of Western allies are seen as extremely corrupt, but the country’s armed forces are still not ready for combat. More than ever, Afghanistan is approaching a new return to power for the Taliban, which would negate all of the results of the war on global terrorism.

Tired of War

While the American command does not want to divulge the name of the soldier who shot the civilians, he may belong to the Second Brigade Combat Team which is based near Kandahar and is responsible for security in the south of the country. Earlier, soldiers from this same brigade served in Iraq, although according to the command, this particular soldier did not serve previously in hot spots and was not prone to depression.

According to the Reuters news agency, the soldier arrived in one of the villages and methodically began to shoot everyone he saw, including women and children. Afterward, he returned to his base and surrendered himself. Now he is being transferred to the U.S., and officials say that they are prepared to sentence the soldier to death. According to experts of the Brookings Institute, in recent years in Afghanistan, the number of senseless murders and suicides has risen sharply. The Army, which had hoped to leave Afghanistan by 2012, now realizes that it must remain there for at least two more years. And the conflict itself is becoming more and more unpopular.

Many analysts compare this event to the war crimes in My Lai during the Vietnam War. At that time, American soldiers killed more than 500 civilians. This incident became one of the reasons for the withdrawal of American forces from Vietnam. But this time, there are a few significant differences. Back then, a whole battalion was involved in the crime, but the guilty were not punished. Just one officer was sentenced for these murders, but after three years he received amnesty. Now, the Pentagon chief himself, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, says that this soldier will be tried and possibly executed.

The point of the international resonance: In 1968, they tried to conceal the mass murder, but now it is very difficult to do so. Even at war, the mass media now plays a much larger role than before.

But the tragedy at My Lai and the one in the villages near Kandahar have one thing in common: American society is tired of war. In the near term, it will be necessary to decide what to do about the war, which has already gone on for almost 10 years. Assuming his duties, Panetta recognized that the expenses and the losses from military operations in Afghanistan are constantly growing and will soon take up 30 percent of the entire defense budget. Yet there will be no political or military result.**

Elections and Karzai

A year ago, U.S. analysts hoped that Obama would begin to reduce the number of American troops in Afghanistan. The president said many times that he was ready to do so, as soon as Kabul’s army was ready to take responsibility for the situation in the country. But with the arrival of 2012 and the beginning of the presidential election campaign, all of those peaceful promises were forgotten. Now, Washington is actively preparing to sign a new strategic cooperation pact with President Hamid Karzai. According to this document, the American forces could stay in Afghanistan at least two more years.

The White House is still counting on the troops staying. In William Barrow’s opinion, to withdraw the troops now would amount to a total defeat in the war on international terrorism. “America and the whole world understand that they cannot fight terrorists with military interventions, but to officially admit that means losing prestige,” the expert explained to Glavred.*

The American command recognizes that it faces a complicated situation. The preservation of existing stability, if the tragic shootings of civilians were to be repeated, would shift toward a growth in the popularity of the Taliban. Moreover, in the U.S. itself, there is growing dissatisfaction with such a long war, which negatively influences the armed forces and the prestige of the country. But the withdrawal of forces could lead to a new civil war in Afghanistan. Even now, the central government in Kabul controls the majority of the country only with the help of NATO. If the Western soldiers depart, it is unlikely that the unpopular Karzai would manage to stay in power.

Return of the Islamists

Finally, the Taliban has once again become the most important factor in this war. Earlier, they were displaced by coalition forces into the mountains and only managed to carry out terrorist acts. In 2008, experts said that the movement was losing its followers.

Now, this drawn-out war, corrupt government and constant deaths of civilians are bringing the Taliban more and more new supporters. Moreover, the Taliban are gradually coming to understand that it is better to fight for power using political methods. The movement has already participated in local elections in the south of the country. While NATO allies refuse to negotiate with the Taliban, they don’t expect integrity from Karzai, nor that his influence in the country will increase. In the future, it is quite possible that a new political force based on the Taliban will appear in Afghanistan, but without the calls for terrorist acts.

Now it is becoming clear that the NATO forces cannot maintain stability in Afghanistan, and the politicians who made the decisions to invade and to support this policy are becoming more and more unpopular. And the war on terrorism is itself a thing of the past.

*This quote, though accurately translated, could not be independently verified.

**Translator’s note: For the 2013 fiscal year, the total defense budget is $614 billion; Afghanistan and Iraq together are allocated $88.5 billion of that, or about 14 percent. In 2011, when Panetta took office, the Afghan war cost $120 billion of $549 billion total, about 21 percent.