Missile Interceptors Will Become Targets

The Russian Ministry of Defense prepares a “media volley” against the American missile interceptor system in Europe.

Kommersant has learned that Moscow regards as useless and irrelevant the secret information about the components of the European missile interceptor program, which the United States recently gave to Russia in a gesture of good will. Despairing of a deal with Washington, Moscow is preparing an assault on the front of public opinion. According to Kommersant, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will this May demonstrate the danger of the European missile shield for Russia’s nuclear forces. Russia plans to give a presentation on this topic at an international military conference, with military personnel and experts from many different countries in attendance. Moscow believes that this will force the U.S. to search for new arguments and justifications for the planned missile interceptor program.

The most recent attempt to salvage negotiations over the missile shield happened last week. On March 13, the U.S. dispatched to Moscow Ellen Tauscher, a State Department special representative dealing in strategic stability and the missile interceptor shield. There she met with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Ministry of Defense Anatolii Antonov and Vice-Premier Dmitriy Rogozin.

According to Kommersant, Ms. Tauscher gave the Russian officials information about components of the planned European missile interceptor shield. The Americans are not hiding their satisfaction with the visit’s results. A source in the State Department assured Kommersant: “The talks were helpful and constructive. Both sides exchanged viewpoints on a whole range of 21st century security issues, including weapons non-proliferation, strategic stability and the missile interceptor system. Going forward, the U.S. is prepared to cooperate with Russia on this issue.”

The Russian negotiators did not share in their American colleagues’ delight. An official familiar with the missile component details that Ms. Tauscher revealed to Moscow used unprintable language when describing them to Kommersant. Translated into polite speech: “This information is worthless.” A different Kommersant source admits that the U.S. cannot reveal any truly sensitive information on the missile shield to Moscow. In their words, “The Senate has strictly forbidden this and specifically laid it out in the ratification of the START treaty. Washington cannot give missile information to anyone, not even to NATO allies.”

Since an agreement appears unlikely, the MoD has decided to strengthen their position through publicity. From May 3-4, the MoD is hosting an international conference in Moscow to discuss the missile interceptor shield. Military officials (up to the level of deputy defense minister) from the U.S., China, India, Japan and European and post-Soviet countries have been invited. They plan to discuss the challenges and threats of missiles and whether cooperation with Russia in this sphere is possible.

As Deputy Minister of Defense Anatolii Antonov told Kommersant, it is at this forum that the ministry will unveil their official argument against the shield. Mr. Antonov said: “This is a unique format. Never before has the MoD discussed a security issue so publicly. We are prepared to impart our judgment on the missile shield’s effect on global and regional security and ready to discuss all points of view. Let the facts show if and where we are incorrect.”

Russia will give a visual presentation of their position: Deploying the missile shield in a unilateral manner destroys the balance of power. According to Kommersant sources, this presentation will be the lynchpin of the conference. Moreover, it was rolled out for foreign audiences in late January, at a closed conference in Vienna on the control of nuclear weapons. High-ranking diplomats, military personnel and policy experts from Russia, the U.S. and EU countries participated in this conference. A Kommersant correspondent was the only media representative at the proceedings, which were conducted under Chatham House rules forbidding Kommersant from revealing attendees’ identities.

At this Vienna conference, the MoD unveiled their presentation on the effects of the European missile shield, using computer modeling to bolster their point. The modeling showed that, in the third phase of the missile shield’s implementation, and certainly in the fourth, it would possibly be able to track and destroy intercontinental ballistic missiles launched from the Russian Federation. In the opinion of Russian military experts, Russian missiles will be in the range of the American interceptor system, which is expected to be deployed in Poland and the Baltic Sea.

A main cause for concern is that the duration of missile’s flight through the interceptor’s “target area” depends largely on the speed of the interceptors. As outlined in the MoD’s presentation, SM-3 interceptors deployed in Poland and the Baltic, capable of speeds up to 4 kilometers per second, could possibly threaten Russian strategic rocket forces. A 5 km-per-second interceptor is entirely capable of striking down Russian missiles. The U.S. is planning to receive these 5 km-per-second interceptors in 2018, as part of the third stage of deployment of the missile shield (SM-3 Block IIA).

In the fourth stage of deployment (planned for 2020), the SM-3 interceptors will be even more advanced, making it even more believable that they will be able strike down Russian missiles. The maximum speed of the most advanced interceptors remains unknown. A MoD official reminded his U.S. colleagues that Moscow is proposing to “strike an agreement to limit the max speed and range of missile interceptors, since 7–8 km-per-second interceptors are already being discussed.”

Computer modeling has shown that the U.S. is already capable of tracking Russian missile launches. U.S. military satellites and stationary and mobile radar stations cover the majority of Russian territory. The presentation also concluded that a shield working in tandem with Russian units would defend European and NATO countries from an Iranian threat — America’s main justification for the European missile shield — far more effectively.

None of the American representatives at the Vienna conference quarreled with Russia’s arguments. Yet, a high-ranking American official admitted to Kommersant: “The presentation accurately represents the reality of the situation. But we should be prepared to repel threats from any side, including an accidental missile launch from Russia.” In response to Kommersant’s question asking why Washington denies that the missile shield would upset the strategic balance between the U.S. and Russia, the official simply shrugged his shoulders.

The May presentation means the U.S. will clearly need to search for additional arguments to justify the missile shield. This is even more true when one considers the constant talk about an inevitable strike on Iran. In the MoD and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the question is already being raised: If Iran’s nuclear military potential is going to be destroyed, what is the European missile shield needed for?