US Anti-missile Program Risks Changes to Chinese Nuclear Policy

The U.S. announced that it intends to build missile defense systems in Asia and the Middle East akin to those in Europe.

It follows, then, that the uproar and antagonism in Asia provoked by the move will most likely also resemble that in Europe. Japan, South Korea and Australia all received invitations from the U.S. to participate in the aforementioned anti-missile shield, and should all seriously consider exactly what this action from America will mean for themselves and for Asia.

China should firmly oppose America’s establishment of an anti-missile shield in Asia. While the U.S. claims the move is directed at North Korea and Iran, in reality it is “Xiang Zhuang using a sword dance as cover to assassinate the Duke of Pei,” the “Duke of Pei,” in this case, being China and Russia.

China should seriously evaluate the long term danger that the development of an anti-missile shield in Asia by America and its allies presents to China’s security. The proposition by the U.S. is not new, as it was brought up as early as the Clinton era. However, with its formal launch today, China is feeling the strategic motive behind the initiative much more strongly than before.

Because these deployments will, in the end, be carried out on Japanese, South Korean and Australian territory, control of the issue does not lie in China’s hands, and it will likely prove difficult to prevent. The most pessimistic viewpoints even go so far as to say that China is practically powerless to stop it.

However, China can look to its own affairs, compensating for the blow from the anti-missile shield. After all, it must protect the credibility of its strategic deterrent, and in this, China’s own resolution and actions are the most important factor.

America has acted extremely cleverly in using North Korea’s satellite launch to fabricate the “legality” of deploying an anti-missile shield. China can follow America’s example, using the deployment of an anti-missile shield as grounds for significantly upgrading China’s strategic counterstrike capability.

China should make large scale improvements to the survivability and penetration capabilities of its strategic weapons by increasing the amount of weapons, developing nuclear attack submarines and turning every type of Chinese missile into a strategic deterrent that no anti-missile shield can stop.

China’s nuclear weapon [arsenal] is the smallest among all nuclear-weapon states, and, furthermore, China remains the only nuclear-weapons state to pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons [in a conflict]. Establishing an anti-missile shield in Asia shows a lack of respect for China’s right as a nuclear-weapons state to maintain a nuclear deterrent, as well as a lack of respect for the fact that China has maintained a conservative nuclear policy.

America has already upset the original balance of power. A strong response from China, including increasing and optimizing its nuclear power, is already expected in Western public opinion, and is not unethical. Indeed, it would be strange for China to remain unconcerned.

The U.S. and its allies should not go overboard with their anti-missile plans, for if they do, they will force China to change its nuclear policy.

If Japan, South Korea and Australia participate in the U.S. anti-missile program, Asia will quite possibly undergo a runaway arms race. This is, of course, not beneficial for China, but China clearly also has no need to fear such an occurrence. Economically and politically, China’s ability to support an arms race is certainly not the weakest [of the concerned nations]. If [an arms race] becomes inevitable, we will have no choice but to face it.

The U.S. is very capable of throwing Asia into disarray. If Asian nations do not reject [the plan], Asia will most likely have many confrontational situations in the future. China should work towards achieving the best outcome, and at the same time prepare for the worst.

Concerning the credibility of China’s strategic deterrent, China must maintain objectivity and have the courage to persevere. China holds the more reasonable position, and must lift its head and speak its mind to the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Australia, making clear to them both the consequences of these actions, and that China does not plan to back down.

China has no need of falling out with the U.S., Japan, South Korea or Australia over this [issue]. China must only resolve to take measures within the scope of its own rights to strategically oppose [the anti-missile shield], and it will maintain its dignity.