Syria – Chessboard forthe Great Powers

The agreement on a cease-fire in Syria went into effect Thursday morning, however, France, the United Kingdom and the United States doubt that it will be applied by the Damascus regime as it has been agreed upon with the Arab League Envoy Kofi Annan.

Thursday morning brought the cease-fire but the chances that it will last are low since both the regime in Damascus and the armed forces of the rebels stated that they reserve the right to react in the event of attack.

International Disputes

Opinions are divided among the international community on the chances that the agreement withstands the camps that have taken shape in the Security Council. Russia is alone in its insistence that the rebels will stop the attacks, while France, the United Kingdom and the United States have focused on the obligation of the government in Damascus to stop shelling areas where there are protesters. The least confident say that it can only be a matter of hours — or days at most — until a there is a return to violence, although, according to a Syrian non-governmental organization at its head office in London, during the first few hours after the agreement was enacted, there was peace. The cease-fire includes the withdrawal of the heavy weapons and tanks that the Syrian regime has positioned near protest hot spots in various cities. But American sources claim that, in fact, tanks have not been withdrawn but only relocated to other places where they could still fire on protestors.

Russia Isn’t Giving Up on Assad

Not even the statements made by the leader of the Free Syrian Army, which is the main armed force contesting the regime, are meant to give hope. He has stated that regardless of whether the termination of violence is maintained or not, the protesters from Damascus intend to gather and head toward the Presidential Palace, an act which obviously would not remain unanswered by the loyal forces of the regime. If the agreement fails, French Minister of Foreign Affairs Alain Juppe has already warned that France will insist that new sanctions against Syria be adopted by the UN Security Council. Such a procedure is likely to meet opposition from Russia, despite the attempts of U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to persuade her Russian counterpart, Serghei Lavrov, at the G8 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting to withdraw his support for President Assad.

Weapons for all Camps

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia insisted that the Syrian rebels receive weapons. The United States has, thus far, opposed such a measure in fear that Syria might plunge into an extended civil war. In addition, Russia has reacted and announced that if the rebels receive weapons, Moscow will in turn arm the Damascus regime. Syria is starting to look more and more like a chessboard on which moves are made from the outside. Meanwhile, Turkey watches with concern as more and more Syrian refugees are coming toward its borders. Turkey might soon be faced with a serious humanitarian crisis. In fact, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently proposed the establishment of a buffer zone – on Syrian territory — between Turkey and Syria. This zone would be protected militarily on land and in the air. A decision is forthcoming this month and it would include, according to some Turkish analysts, a partial military intervention in Syria. According to UN data, approximately 9,000 people have lost their lives since the beginning of protests against the government in Syria in March last year. The Syrian government claims instead that the number is only around 4,000 people, of which over 1,000 were soldiers.