Obama’s Dividend

Polls show that Mitt Romney is still close behind him, but Obama’s strategic change in immigration policy can promise him another term.

In order to win the elections in the U.S., which will take place in four months, and be elected president, a candidate must win 270 electors, which are divided among the 50 states and determined by the size of each state.

It is already now known that Obama will win the electors of the “Blue States” (the Democratic color), such as New York, California and Massachusetts, while Romney will have the support of the “Red States,” among them Alabama, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

Polls taken each day throughout the United States and simple calculations reveal that there are about 13 states in which the battle is yet to be settled; the winner will eventually be decided by these states in November.

Both camps are well aware of this calculation and are taking action to receive the support of these “swing” states. Therefore, Democratic and Republican strategists work hard each day to try and decipher what is the most important factor in each state and how it will be possible to draw it toward the Red or the Blue.

This background brought Obama to issue an executive order on the United States’ immigration policy. In a politically brilliant move, Obama decided not to wait for the tiresome discussions in Congress and removed the threat of deportation from a bit less than a million Hispanics.

Obama had three and a half years to do this, and the current timing is clearly not coincidental. There is no doubt that it is an opportunistic and populist move, but for the Hispanics (whose support Obama hopes to have in the fall), it really doesn’t matter.

The Swing States

Is this a good strategy for Obama? How important are the voices of the Hispanics, who tend to vote for the Democrats anyway? To find answers for these questions, we have to examine the numbers (as the people in Obama’s camp did) and deduce that it is indeed a precise political calculation.

Let’s take, for example, four decisively important fluctuating states: Florida (with 29 electors), Colorado (9), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). Obama won the 2008 elections in three of them. (He lost to John McCain in his home state, Arizona.)

The population of these states has a higher Hispanic percentage when compared to the rest of the United States. While the Hispanic percentage of the U.S.’ [population] is around 16 percent on average, according to a 2010 population census Florida is about 22.5 percent Hispanic, Colorado 20.7 percent, Arizona 29.6 percent and Nevada 26.5 percent.

The results of a poll taken among Hispanic voters after the issuing of the executive order show how correct the Democratic strategy had been: More than 40 percent of the participants in Florida said that they were much more enthusiastic about Obama after his order, and he now leads with 53–37 support ahead of Romney.

In Colorado, more than 40 percent were more enthusiastic as well, and Obama leads with a huge 70–22 gap. In Arizona the enthusiasm rose even more (more than 50 percent), and Obama’s lead is 74–18, while in Nevada the president now leads with 69–20.

Although everybody knows that it’s all cold political calculations, Obama’s dividend is huge. Not only was Romney (who during the primaries turned sharply to the right on immigration to prove to the conservatives that he isn’t soft on this issue) blocked by Obama’s move, but it also blocked one of the main nominees for the vice-presidency: Marco Rubio, the Florida senator with Cuban roots.

A simple calculation will determine November’s elections, and every fluctuating state is important. We should expect many more strategic moves aiming to “colorize” the states with blue or red, and during the following weeks, we will examine these calculations and see how these states will decide the identity of the next president.