Bad US Economy Ruins Obama’s Chances for Reelection

U.S. President Barack Obama, a Democrat, won’t manage to defeat his main opponent in the fight for reelection to another four-year term. It’s not because of Republican Mitt Romney who, in the opinion of local observers, still doesn’t shine as the opposing party’s virtual leader. On the whole, the president wrestles not with him, but with the severely struggling American economy, which is now threatening a new recession, even though it just barely failed to recover from the prior economic state. According to specialists, any expectation of a radical improvement in the economy’s general state before the November vote will not be realized.

Even the International Monetary Fund, which normally doesn’t publicly express doubt concerning the “good economic health” of its largest shareholder, now openly expresses alarm. Recently reporting about the upcoming yearly survey results on the American economy, the organization determined that the economy’s cleansing process is “still scarcely flickering and depends on increased risk factors,”* both internally and beyond the border.

More than anything, an external threat naturally emerges from the crisis in the euro zone, which is getting progressively strained. Washington clearly can’t directly help its Western European partners; in any case, it constantly speaks about how those in need of rescuing should carry out their own rescue effort. The salvation of those drowning should be carried out by the very hands of those drowning. However, Washington is still concerned that they hang on and float. Obama regularly discusses this topic in telephone meetings with leaders heading the European Union countries and recently sent U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to Europe for consultation.

Meanwhile, the U.S. consistently moves toward what is called a “fiscal cliff.” This term, introduced to the political lexicon by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, refers to an immediate confluence of several simultaneous events. The most important of them is the impending expiration of current legislation, a compulsory and abrupt reduction of U.S. federal budget spending starting in 2013. At the same time, tax cuts introduced during former Republican President George Bush Jr.’s administration will expire, restoring the previous tax rates, which were higher. Finally, the U.S. Finance Ministry predicts that the government will hit its “debt ceiling” again by the end of the current year, bringing its debt to an astronomical level.

The fall from the “cliff,” according to specialists and the International Monetary Fund, would almost certainly doom the U.S. to a new economic recession. In order to prevent this, it is necessary to overcome the intense ideological resistance between Democrats and Republicans regarding economic issues. However, neither party plans to “abandon its principles” or budge from its position on the threshold of the election.

Politically, the main problem with the current economic malaise is that there aren’t enough jobs in the country. The U.S.’s official unemployment rate right now is 8.2 percent, but based on wider criteria, it measures at 14.9 percent. Given that figure, almost one in six Americans lack consistent, reliable full-time work right now. For specific population groups, including youth and minorities, figures are much higher. Considering the attitudes of these voters, it makes sense that their families and friends are making preparations to come out and vote.

All in all, if you judge according to historical precedents, the socioeconomic statistics are now against Obama. Only Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1936 achieved reelection with a higher rate of unemployment, but he then led the country out of the Great Depression, after which the economy and productivity quickly grew. Economic growth is now estimated at approximately 1.5 percent, and specialists expect neither a significant improvement in the upcoming months nor a reduction of unemployment to less than 8 percent.

According to sociologists, in general, less than a third of Americans are satisfied with the development of events in the country. The level of consumer confidence is lower than in 1980 before the crushing defeat of then-White House leader Jimmy Carter. One might say that Obama’s personal rating is “zero”; there are as many negative opinions as there are positive.

It is true that the acting president now appears preferable in comparison to Romney. According to a combined total of opinion polls that was analyzed by Real Clear Politics, a network resource, Obama leads right now by an average of 3 percent.

But all his fellow countrymen will realistically judge his work based on the state of the economy. The longer the state remains “foreboding,” the more attractive any alternative will look.

*Editor’s note: the original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.