Obama Doesn't Want to Be Compared to Bush in Iraq Operations

United States President Barack Obama warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that if he doesn’t want to provoke American military action, he shouldn’t relocate – let alone deploy – his chemical and biological weapons. Kommersant FM columnist Constantin Eggert decided to analyze possible scenarios for the development of such an occurrence.

The American president drew a line over which al-Assad had better not cross: Not only the use of, but even transference of the world’s fourth largest supply of chemical and biological weapons could be a pretext for U.S. military intervention. Neighboring Israel has already analyzed scenarios for military action in the event that al-Assad, similar to Saddam Hussein in 1991, will seek to launch a giant Middle Eastern war, striking Israeli cities.

In reality, I’m sure the Syrian dictator won’t make such a stupid mistake. Even Hussein placed regular warheads on his missiles, since he knew that if he used warheads with chemical or biological weapons, Israel would answer with a nuclear strike. I think that they realize this in Damascus as well.

A different issue is the use of chemical or biological weapons within the country against the insurgent Free Syrian Army. Theoretically, al-Assad could carry out such an act, and Obama cautions him against it.

You can imagine what will happen if the Syrian government decides to disregard the White House’s warning. Coordinates of the Syrian regime’s foundational government and military establishments are already entered into computers on the ships and airplanes of the Fifth and Sixth U.S. Fleets in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea. However, I think that in a threatening situation, losing control over the supplies of weapons of mass destruction without using the sea infantry or rangers will not suffice.

Supposedly, weapons storehouses primarily reside in western Syria. I think that new American reconnaissance teams already exist, the basic strength of which should help seize the necessary supplies under their protection.

This will be the end of al-Assad’s regime and a quick one at that. But it also means Americans will have to prolong their stay in Syria. You see, another disaster scenario exists: chaos in the country and dangerous ammunition falling into the hands of Muslim radicals.

On the threshold of the presidential election, Obama would least of all want to be compared to George Bush regarding Bush’s 2003 operations in Iraq. However, the American president has no choice. He can’t allow himself to give up control over al-Assad’s chemical and biological weapons. He will be left to hope that the inevitable shift in power in Damascus will take place sooner or later, at least according to the predicted scenario.