The 2012 US Presidential Elections: The Jellyis Already Made

The title of this article is no more than a mnemonic device that my professor of Ancient History and Media taught me so that I could remember the Latin phrase attributed to Julius Caesar when he crossed the Rubicon with his legions in a campaign to seize power in Rome. Alea iacta est. I never have forgotten the meaning: “The die is cast.”

It might have been appropriate to speak this phrase to Obama or Romney after the conclusion of the third debate this past Monday. There is no turning back. All is said and done after more than 18 months of campaigning that has put in place the key pieces of the final fight that will lead either candidate to live, from Jan. 20, 2013 to Jan. 19, 2017, at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C., the capital of the modern empire.

For reasons explained in our article in Granma on Aug. 19, the third debate about foreign policy was “won” in an overwhelming manner by Obama. Snapshots and subsequent polls of the debate reveal that nearly two-thirds of the respondents saw a “win” for Obama. Romney was very cautious; his limited attacks did criticize Obama for leading a weak foreign policy, but were formulated in the traditional bipartisan spirit toward the actions of the U.S. government in this area.

Romney’s objectives frightened moderates but did not incur false attacks that would chase away independent votes. Romney did not “win,” but he avoided being left out in the cold.

Without an electoral event of national interest that would substantially change the political panorama scheduled or predicted for the final days of the campaign (unless Hurricane Sandy does some mischief), since last Tuesday both presidential candidates and their respective campaign teams have focused their strengths in the “battlefield” states.

From Tuesday to Thursday, Obama campaigned in six of the eight key states: Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Florida and Virginia. On Tuesday Romney was in Nevada; Wednesday, Thursday and Friday he was in Ohio and Iowa.

These actions are directly related to the tactical aspects of the goal of achieving the required 270 electoral votes. As has been noted repeatedly, there are infinite numerical speculations, but facts on the ground, supported by surveys, fundraising, electoral machinery and voting traditions, show that the election will be decided by what happens in the eight “battlefield” states.

If we wanted to test predictions, there are many possible methods from which to choose. To narrow our choices, we can use assessments that the organization Real Clear Politics, which is renowned in this business in the U.S., has employed to integrate the predictions of various surveys carried out by different organizations in each state.

Real Clear Politics believes Obama has a lead, with advantages ranging from 2.9 points to 0.8 points, in Ohio (18 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4), for a total of 44 electoral votes. Romney leads by 1.8 points to 0.2 points, respectively, in Florida (29) and Colorado (9). Adding these 38 points to the 206 electoral votes that are considered secure or almost secure for him, Romney will only arrive at 244 of the 270 necessary electoral votes. The eighth state is Virginia, where Real Clear Politics believes there is a tie based on an analysis of four different surveys.

As it is believed that none of these states are decidedly in favor of one candidate over the other, we can make two observations, taking into account that Real Clear Politics indicates a consensus between analysts and forecasters. First, Obama (237 secure electoral votes) has both a clearer and more varied path to victory. Second, Romney’s options (206 secure electoral votes) are less varied. He must win in Florida, where he enjoys an advantage of 1.8 points, in Colorado (0.2 advantage points) and in Virginia (tied). He must also win at least 13 votes from the five swing states, where Obama has an advantage, in order to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes. The candidate that is most likely to win is the one that wins at least two of the three states with the highest number of electoral votes: Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

In short, Ohio is a primary concern for Obama, just as Florida is for Romney; neither can afford to lose these states without seriously jeopardizing their chances of winning the election, as they are key to achieving the 270 electoral votes. Meanwhile, Virginia and Colorado are seen as the states where the confrontation is fiercest because neither candidate appears to have a clear advantage.

An interesting indicator on the status of the campaign that is rarely discussed is the state elections of senators. In these elections, the Democratic Party has 21 seats at stake, while the Republicans have only ten. Months ago, at the beginning of the campaign, it was believed that there were a number of Democratic seats at risk of being won by the Republican candidates while almost none of the Republican seats risked being captured by Democrats. If this prediction is fulfilled, the Republican Party will achieve a majority in the Senate and thus control both houses of Congress. But these predictions do not seem to be concrete and it is even possible that the Democrats may increase, by one or two, their number of senators. The Democratic candidates for Senate in the decisive states of Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia could be winners.

A final comment about the polls — Four weeks before the election, the Gallup polling organization, with more than 50 years of experience, announced that it would apply the standard of “likely voters” in its surveys. The results showed a wide advantage (between seven percent, six percent and five percent) for Romney in the total national vote. Further, since the end of September and early October, polls from other organizations, especially the Pew Research Center, showed a positive shift toward Romney. This has changed to a slight shift toward Obama in the last few days.

Much has been said about this phenomenon in recent days. In the United States, there are countless centers, organizations and businesses dedicated to polling activity. Surveys are an effective instrument for measuring trends, resulting in many different methods and formulas, with much insight and knowledge accumulated yet also with a high degree of ambiguity or error in the results obtained (usually between three percent and five percent). They do not constitute an exact scientific measurement, but rather an indicator of trends.

The final word will be the actions of the infantry on the ground, as Julius Caesar said: Alea iacta est.