What Can the US Gain from a Return to Asia without China?

At present, the Asia-Pacific presents a dual state, a political and security system led by the United States and an economic system led by China. The two systems mutually constrain each other and are difficult to unify or replace, which limits Asian countries’ options and makes it difficult for relations among them to change.

The Asia-Pacific security system led by the United States was formed during the Cold War. The open conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union divided the world in two: on one side, a capitalist party led by the United States; on the other, a socialist party led by the Soviet Union. To contain the Soviet Union and China, the United States established a military alliance similar to NATO in Europe with its Asian allies. In addition to large amounts of financial aid from the United States, American markets were also opened up, which gave birth to the economic miracle of Japan and the four Asian tigers. Politically, Japan, South Korea and other countries followed the democratic system of the United States. Eventually, in terms of culture and education, these countries were more or less Americanized under the influence of the United States; these aspects formed the foundation for their shared values. In the 1970s, due to Sino-Soviet conflict and relationship breakdown, Sino-American relations improved. China was accepted as an associate member in the Asian order by the United States. The relationship between China and Japan as well as other Asian countries began to be directed toward peace and development. Lastly, due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States obtained the final victory of the Cold War worldwide, including victory in Asia.

The original functionalities of the Asian security system led by the United States have all been lost. During the 1990s financial crisis in Asia, the United States turned its strategic focus toward the Middle East. In fact, Asia entered a period of relative peace and rapid economic development. Economic globalization has promoted the rapid economic rise and development of China and other Asian countries. Economic linkages led to the development of regional economic integration centered on China. The development of economic integration in turn led to the development of political integration and de-Westernization in Asia. The Asian financial turmoil awakened the Asian countries and led them to recognize that the United States and the West are not reliable. Asia’s development can only rely on itself. It should be said that this is an era of Asian awakening, the era of the view that Asia belongs to Asians. Asia has become the world’s most dynamic region in terms of economic development. Economic focus is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific — but this golden age is ending with the return of the United States to Asia.

As the United States returns to Asia, it will shift global strategic objectives toward Asia. Its policies are rebuilding and reinforcing the Cold War security system that has been abandoned, advocating the theory that China is a threat, provoking contradictions between China and its neighboring countries, piecing back together alliances to contain China’s rise — basically the same old stuff of the Cold War era. However, the return of the United States to Asia will focus primarily on military and political alliances. Investment on the economic side is rare, only once gaining real momentum and producing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The geopolitical strategy behind the TPP is obvious. However, due to the negotiation difficulties encountered and isolation faced by China in joining such an upgraded version of regional trade agreement, TPP should be called a framework for politics and values instead of a framework for economic cooperation.

But the question remains, is such exclusion of China feasible? China is not only the engine of the world economy, but also the promoter of Asia’s economic development and prosperity. Without China’s participation, Asia is only half Asia. What can the United States gain from the half of Asia that doesn’t include China? Asian countries are closely linked with the economic development in China presently, gaining lots of benefits from China. What can they, after leaving China, obtain from the United States? In fact, the return of the United States to Asia is restricted to the political and military spheres, while on the economic side, it is isolating China. It is already too late to reverse the integrated Asian economic system led by China, and the costs are tremendous.