OPD 9 Dec 2024, edited by Helaine Schweitzer, proofing in progress

What Can the US Gain from a Return to Asia without China?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 22 October 2012
by Baosheng Gang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stefanie Zhou. Edited by Mary Young.
At present, the Asia-Pacific presents a dual state, a political and security system led by the United States and an economic system led by China. The two systems mutually constrain each other and are difficult to unify or replace, which limits Asian countries’ options and makes it difficult for relations among them to change.

The Asia-Pacific security system led by the United States was formed during the Cold War. The open conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union divided the world in two: on one side, a capitalist party led by the United States; on the other, a socialist party led by the Soviet Union. To contain the Soviet Union and China, the United States established a military alliance similar to NATO in Europe with its Asian allies. In addition to large amounts of financial aid from the United States, American markets were also opened up, which gave birth to the economic miracle of Japan and the four Asian tigers. Politically, Japan, South Korea and other countries followed the democratic system of the United States. Eventually, in terms of culture and education, these countries were more or less Americanized under the influence of the United States; these aspects formed the foundation for their shared values. In the 1970s, due to Sino-Soviet conflict and relationship breakdown, Sino-American relations improved. China was accepted as an associate member in the Asian order by the United States. The relationship between China and Japan as well as other Asian countries began to be directed toward peace and development. Lastly, due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States obtained the final victory of the Cold War worldwide, including victory in Asia.

The original functionalities of the Asian security system led by the United States have all been lost. During the 1990s financial crisis in Asia, the United States turned its strategic focus toward the Middle East. In fact, Asia entered a period of relative peace and rapid economic development. Economic globalization has promoted the rapid economic rise and development of China and other Asian countries. Economic linkages led to the development of regional economic integration centered on China. The development of economic integration in turn led to the development of political integration and de-Westernization in Asia. The Asian financial turmoil awakened the Asian countries and led them to recognize that the United States and the West are not reliable. Asia's development can only rely on itself. It should be said that this is an era of Asian awakening, the era of the view that Asia belongs to Asians. Asia has become the world’s most dynamic region in terms of economic development. Economic focus is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific — but this golden age is ending with the return of the United States to Asia.

As the United States returns to Asia, it will shift global strategic objectives toward Asia. Its policies are rebuilding and reinforcing the Cold War security system that has been abandoned, advocating the theory that China is a threat, provoking contradictions between China and its neighboring countries, piecing back together alliances to contain China’s rise — basically the same old stuff of the Cold War era. However, the return of the United States to Asia will focus primarily on military and political alliances. Investment on the economic side is rare, only once gaining real momentum and producing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The geopolitical strategy behind the TPP is obvious. However, due to the negotiation difficulties encountered and isolation faced by China in joining such an upgraded version of regional trade agreement, TPP should be called a framework for politics and values instead of a framework for economic cooperation.

But the question remains, is such exclusion of China feasible? China is not only the engine of the world economy, but also the promoter of Asia’s economic development and prosperity. Without China’s participation, Asia is only half Asia. What can the United States gain from the half of Asia that doesn’t include China? Asian countries are closely linked with the economic development in China presently, gaining lots of benefits from China. What can they, after leaving China, obtain from the United States? In fact, the return of the United States to Asia is restricted to the political and military spheres, while on the economic side, it is isolating China. It is already too late to reverse the integrated Asian economic system led by China, and the costs are tremendous.


目前,亚太格局呈现二元化的态势,一个是以美国为主导的政治安全体系,另一个是以中国为主导的经济体系,两大体系相互制约,难以统一和相互代替,由此决定了亚洲国家在中美之间的选择,以及亚洲国家关系的变化。

  以美国为主导的亚太安全体系形成于冷战时期,由于美苏矛盾的公开化,世界被一分为二,一方是以美国为主导的资本主义阵营,另一方是以前苏联为主导的社会主义阵营。为遏制苏联和中国,美国与其亚洲盟国建立了类似欧洲北约的安保军事同盟,经济上美国除了大量援助外,还开放美国市场,由此催生了日本和亚洲四小龙的经济奇迹,政治上日本、韩国等国纷纷仿效美国的民主制度,最后在文化教育方面,这些国家在美国的影响下,都或多或少趋于美国化,这也就形成了这些国家的共同价值观基础。上世纪70年代,由于中苏矛盾和关系破裂,中美关系改善,中国被接纳于美国亚洲秩序,成为这一秩序的准成员国,中国与日本等亚洲国家关系趋于和解和发展。最后,由于前苏联的瓦解,美国秩序在全球取得冷战的最终胜利,其中也包括在亚洲的胜利,至此,美国主导的亚洲安全体系失去了原有的作用。上世纪90年代亚洲金融风暴,美国将战略重心转向中东地区,亚洲反而由此进入了一个相对和平与经济迅速发展的时期,经济全球化推动了中国和亚洲各国经济的迅速发展和崛起,经济上的相互联系导致以中国为中心的亚洲区域经济一体化的发展,而经济一体化的发展又导致亚洲趋于政治一体化和去西方化的发展。亚洲金融风暴使亚洲国家觉醒,他们认识到美国和西方不可靠,亚洲的发展只能靠自己,应该讲这是一个亚洲觉醒、亚洲崛起的时代,是一个亚洲是亚洲人的时代,亚洲成为世界经济发展最有活力的区域,世界经济中心正在从大西洋转向太平洋。但是这一黄金时代随着美国重返亚洲趋于终结。

  美国重返亚洲,将全球战略目标转向亚洲,其政策是重修和加固已经被荒弃的冷战安全体系,鼓吹中国威胁论,挑起中国与周边国家的矛盾,重新拼凑同盟以遏制中国的崛起,基本上是冷战时期的老一套。但是,美国重返亚洲将精力主要放在军事与政治结盟方面,在经济上少有投入,唯一的是在TPP上获得了进取的势头,TPP的地缘战略涵义路人皆知,由于中国在加入这样一个升级版的区域贸易协定谈判上困难重重,孤立无策,所以,TPP计划与其讲是一个经济合作框架,不如讲是一个政治和价值观的合作框架,但是问题是将中国排除在外可行吗?中国目前不仅是世界经济的引擎,也是亚洲经济发展与繁荣的推动者,没有中国参加,亚洲只是半个亚洲,美国能够从没有中国的另一半亚洲得到什么呢?对于亚洲国家来讲,目前这些国家都与中国经济的发展密切相连,从中国得到许多好处,离开中国,他们从美国那里能够得到什么呢?事实上,美国重返亚洲只是政治与军事上重返亚洲,而要在经济上排挤中国,扭转以中国为主导的亚洲经济一体化体系已经为时过晚,并且成本与代价巨大。
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