Days of the Arab Political Cuisinein Moscow

The first session of the Russian-Arab cooperation forum took place yesterday in Moscow. It has become Moscow’s attempt to regain the position in the Middle East lost during the “Arab Spring.” In addition to efforts to start a dialogue between the Syrian opposition and the Bashar Assad regime, Russia is also trying to revive the Palestinian-Israeli dialogue and calling for a nuclear free zone conference in the Middle East. Experts are skeptical, however, about chances for a breakthrough, saying that Moscow’s activity can only bring her “image dividends.”

Moscow had been waiting for three years for the meeting with the representatives of the Arab world to take place on its territory. Opening the first session of the Russian-Arab cooperation forum, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov highlighted key issues of the region. Until recently Moscow’s initiatives on these issues were either not accepted, as in the case with the Syrian crisis, or held back by Israel’s refusal to accept, as it happened with the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and the idea of holding a conference on establishing a nuclear free zone in the region.

Addressing the Arab ministers and Secretary-General of the Arab League Nabil Elaraby, Sergey Lavrov let everybody know that Moscow is not going to remain on the defensive, fighting the accusations that it supports the Assad regime, but rather that it was going to start a diplomatic counteroffensive. The preconditions for that have been created by the Syrian crisis, where the confrontation between President Assad and the armed rebels caused a stalemate. Moscow thinks that this makes even more desirable the Russian idea of a Syrian settlement as an alternative to the armed overthrow of the Syrian regime with the help of external forces. “One can conclude that the call for an armed settlement of the conflict from any side doesn’t work. What makes its way more and more is understanding the necessity of starting a dialogue,” said Sergey Lavrov, defining this new tendency.

The Syrian crisis was one of the subjects of the recent phone conversation between Mr. Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. As they are sharply opposed on this problem, Moscow and Washington have to find points of rapprochement. Meanwhile, their positions are far from each other. Victoria Nuland, the spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State, announced that the secretary of state, who was going on Sunday on a tour to Europe and the Middle East, would meet the leaders of the Syrian opposition in Rome. Answering the question of whether Russia would participate in the meeting, Nuland reiterated that Moscow has received invitations to the previous meetings but refused them. “Russia has to make its own decision on this subject, but I don’t think her position is going to change,” said Nuland.*

Because the U.S. is active on this subject, Moscow isn’t giving up alternative attempts to start a dialogue between the Syrian authorities and the opposition. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov announced that the Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem and the President of the National Coalition for Opposition Forces Ahmad Mouaz al-Khatib could meet for negotiations in Moscow if they want to. The Syrian minister’s visit to Moscow, expected already on Monday, was announced by Sergey Lavrov the day before the Russian-Arab Forum. According to him, the Russian side intends to discuss with the guest the questions whose solutions can facilitate the beginning of dialogue in Syria. “We are doing the same job with the opposition as well and never stopped, neither with the government nor with those who oppose it,” reiterated the Russian minister of foreign affairs.

Experts, however, are skeptical regarding Moscow’s new activity in the Middle East. “The fact that there are more than 20 Arab states in the world is useful for the Russian foreign ministry. First of all, it allows keeping an army of Arab specialty diplomats. Secondly, it gives Moscow an opportunity to be the cohort of the world’s powers as a co-sponsor of the Middle East peace process, which is very honorable, though does not quite make sense for the Israeli-Palestinian settlement,” said the president of the Middle East Institute, Evgeny Satanovsky. According to him, Moscow’s geo-political opponents like the Salafist monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Turkey and the U.S. are setting the tone in the region, which makes any attempt on Moscow’s part to increase its influence “illusory.” “However, all this does not exclude the maneuvering around Russia of those who play the game, which we can observe today,” said the expert.

* Editor’s Note: This quote, while accurately translated, could not be verified.