Why Is Obama Going to Israel?

Readers of this column are aware of my constant emphasis on the shift from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region in U.S. foreign policy. The beating of war drums between China and Japan, tense relations between North and South Korea and the strengthening of the U.S. missile defense system in Alaska last week point to an Asia-Pacific-centric threat perception. Moreover, Washington’s passivity on the Syrian issue and the fact that the U.S. is not taking new initiatives toward Arab-Israeli peace are clear evidence that the Middle East has, relatively speaking, fallen off the agenda in U.S. foreign policy. So why is Obama making his first official post-election visit to Israel instead of the Asia-Pacific region?

The question has to be answered from two different points of view — from within the framework of domestic policy and in terms of the most urgent issue in the region. What stands out in terms of domestic policy is that Obama is the first U.S. president who did not visit Israel during his first term, but made an official visit to China and traveled to the Asia-Pacific several times. Both Mitt Romney and the Israel lobby had criticized him harshly for this during the election period. Therefore, we can say that it has become indispensable for Obama to go to Israel immediately during his second term in order to respond to these growing criticisms at home. Incidentally, we should also remember that Obama is already preparing for the 2014 midterm elections.

As you know, members of the House of Representatives are up for re-election every two years. The Republican majority in Congress, which vetoes every economic and social reform coming from the White House, is a serious handicap for Obama. Winning a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives in 2014 is foremost for Obama, who prioritizes domestic policy with a focus on the economy over foreign policy. Therefore, not giving a trump card to the Israel lobby, which dislikes him, is an important factor in Obama’s visit to Israel. In terms of foreign policy, the most important issue for Obama in the Middle East is Iran.

The main reason for Iran’s importance to the U.S. foreign policy does not stem from Iran itself. Iran is not a direct threat to the U.S., but Israel perceives Iran’s nuclear project as a fatal threat. Therefore, the most urgent matter in the Middle East for Obama is striking a balance of power between Iran and Israel and preventing Israel from acting on its own. As diplomatic talks with Iran and economic sanctions have slowly started bearing fruit, an Israeli air strike on Iran’s nuclear centers in an act of madness would be a complete nightmare for Obama. For this reason, it is very important for him to visit Israel, reassuring the newly formed government and renewing the guarantee that the U.S. will not allow Iran to go in the direction of nuclear weapons.

In the meantime, of course, it is strategically logical to make some efforts toward Arab-Palestinian peace when expectations are so low. When expectations are low, it is difficult for anything to be perceived as failure. This visit will have achieved its overall goal, particularly if Obama makes even a little progress with the new Israeli government on reconciling Turkey and Israel.