America Wants to Believe in Good Afghan-Pakistani Relations

The Obama administration is hoping that, in the final months of the International Security Assistance Force’s mission in Afghanistan, a breakthrough will be reached that has proved elusive for over a decade. They hope Pakistan will be persuaded to support a peaceful rebuilding process in Afghanistan through cooperative efforts with Afghan National Security Force to destroy the insurgency festering on their common border. This is a real political “mission impossible.”

For years, Pakistan has promised to support its eastern neighbor’s regime change. Words, however, stand in stark contrast to the frequent flare-ups along the Afghan-Pakistani border, and the growing hostility between the two political establishments. It is doubtful that anything will take a turn for the better once ISAF leaves Afghanistan.

The source of tensions is well-known. Pakistan routinely employs groups of insurgents to take care of business on its own frontier as well as across the border. It has done so since independence and has continued to do so until today. It might stop if Pakistan reaches a deal with India, but that seems awfully far away in the future, and definitely further away than 2014.

It is important to note that Pakistan, mainly through the Inter-Services Intelligence, maintains relations with and supports many Afghan Taliban groups, such as the Haqqani network. The objective is for Pakistan to be a player and deciding voice in events in Afghanistan. Pakistan cannot allow its neighbor to slip from its grasp, lest Afghanistan align itself more closely with India. For Pakistan, this would be a huge geopolitical loss and would put it in a tough military situation in the eventuality of a war. Since the situation with India has not changed much, it is improbable that Pakistan would be willing to leave Afghanistan to its own devices.

The need for such influence will be more critical when NATO leaves, since Afghanistan’s political future is a big unknown. Whether Afghanistan plunges into a civil war, or Russia and China take advantage of the vacuum or whether the Americans remain the closest ally of the Afghan regime, Pakistan must have the ability to influence whatever events take place. From Pakistan’s standpoint, stepping away from such influence does not make any sense.

Optimists point out the changes that have occurred lately in Pakistan. Supposedly, the new government isn’t singularly focused on the conflict with India and is more concerned with internal security, especially the dangers posed by border region militants. Indeed, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan has begun to cause major headaches in Islamabad. The increased radicalization of the border populations and the corresponding loss of control over those regions have become progressively worse.

Pakistan officially supports the ongoing Doha negotiations between the Afghan government and representatives of the Taliban. So far, the negotiations have been fruitless. A major civil war in Afghanistan would be bad for Pakistan, as violence would no doubt spill over into Pakistani territory. The Doha negotiations leave open the possibility that the Taliban will have a voice in Afghanistan’s future political discourse, which is a good thing for Pakistan.

In the past few months, numerous gestures of goodwill were made. Smiles and handshakes between representatives, facilitated by an equally smiling John Kerry, have taken place. Pakistani military commanders spoke to members of the Northern Alliance. Pakistani President Zardari assured the participants of a U.N. forum that he believes in a peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan — provided of course, that Afghanistan be run by “Afghans.” Some in America seem to believe that there is substance behind the gestures. This raises the question of whether a strong, independent Afghan government suppressing the Taliban would be beneficial for Pakistan. The answer is no.

For now, Pakistan is content keeping up the charade. No doubt, they see it as a great way to ease the anxieties of the soon departing Americans, and it plays well with Western media. It is vital that no one in Washington raise the possibility of extending America’s commitment to Afghanistan beyond 2014 or leaving behind more than just a symbolic number of troops. Once the Americans leave Afghanistan, Pakistan will be able to pursue its aims without restrictions or the annoyance of buzzing drones.