Before the Storm

I would not want to be in President Putin’s place this Monday (June 17). He has ahead of him a high-stakes meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, not to mention the meeting of the leaders of the world’s eight wealthiest countries. If in his place, I would not set foot in Belfast — just as he did not attend the last G-8 summit. He will have to reckon with a heretofore-unseen amount of pressure: The United States and its partners in NATO are full of resolve to occupy Syria.

The success of pro-regime soldiers in the battle for control over Qusayr in April derailed the West’s plans. Now no one is even talking about the upcoming Geneva II Syria peace talks; the rebels are losing ground and don’t have anything to bring to the negotiating table. America isn’t used to being defeated without first having destroyed the country that it is occupying. The Americans lost the Korean and Vietnam Wars, and both countries were devastated for decades thereafter. The same story applies here: If America loses Syria, then Syria will have to be razed. But before that, America will try to conquer it.

At present, France — not to mention Saudi Arabia and Qatar — is actively furnishing the rebels with weaponry. Now the U.S. is jumping on the bandwagon. But chances are slim that the insurgents will be able to hold their ground even with the inflow of weapons. In order to avoid total defeat, they will need at least a no-fly zone. Right now the American side is considering instituting a no-fly zone that stretches 40 to 100 kilometers into Syria from the Jordanian border.

In order to bring about this no-fly zone, it will be necessary to deliver a crushing blow to all of Syria’s airfields and to try to destroy Syrian aircraft. This strike could occur at any moment. There is no possibility that President Putin will be able to dissuade Obama, so his trip to Belfast is not very likely to be successful.

It is true that Obama was against directly interfering in the Syrian civil war. But he does not make decisions in a vacuum: Other influential American officials are of the opinion that it is time to rein in Syria, and in doing so, to remind Russia of its place on the world stage. It is hard to say which of those goals is more significant for Washington and its allies. But one thing is certain: If America succeeds in dismantling Syria, it will not only have won over that crucial Middle Eastern country — it will also demonstrate to the world that Russia is powerless and unable to defend its own allies.

Israel plays no small part in America’s plans. The Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv published the transcript of a discussion between President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Sochi. The authenticity of the transcript is under dispute, but the gist of it is completely believable: Netanyahu threatened Putin with the destruction of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, which would undermine the value of this important Russian export product.

This theme was echoed in an article written by an Israeli military analyst in the newspaper Haaretz. The analyst, who has close ties to Prime Minister Netanyahu, stated that if Russia sends S-300s into Syria, Israel will destroy them, and their commercial value will hit rock bottom. And if the Russians do not send S-300s, it means that they are intimidated and think that the cost of buying them would not be worth the potential consequences.

Israel is a major arms exporter, so demonstrating the superiority of Israeli technology over Russian technology is not only a matter of pride — it also represents a serious commercial interest. In a new Israeli documentary called “The Lab,” it is revealed that Israel’s arms exports were developed against the background of the constant conflict with the Palestinians, who were made into guinea pigs for weapons testing.

“Israeli weapons stand the test of war.” This is the motto of Israeli arms exports. But little victories over residents of the Gaza Strip are not enough to back up this claim. Destroying Russian anti-aircraft missiles would allow Israeli arms producers to up their profits, push Russia off the market and show the Americans that they haven’t been pumping titanic amounts of money into the Israeli military for nothing.

Israel and the U.S. also have Jordan on their side. Jordan has become the primary conduit of arms and foreign mercenaries into Syria. Today there are 5,000 American soldiers and officers in Syria who were deployed supposedly to train Syrian rebels. These troops will be able to defend the American rockets and airplanes needed in order to establish a no-fly zone. At this time, the U.S. has no plans to put boots on the ground in Syria, but that option is not completely off the table. A war in Syria that embroils foreign powers is practically inevitable. Even if Russia completely surrenders its position, the conflict will simply be postponed for a short period of time.

In this complex situation, which has echoes of the Cuban missile crisis, Putin’s meeting with the American president will be a serious test. We all remember the meeting between Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan in Reykjavik. Gorbachev gave into pressure and surrendered the Soviet Union, Warsaw Pact, and practically capitulated.

To this day, we do not know what it was that broke Gorbachev. They say that he was slipped psychotropic substances, blackmailed, manipulated and bribed. Fortunately Putin is a hard nut to crack and won’t bend or break so readily. Still, he will not have it easy.

But then, who has it easy these days?