The Conflagration Has Begun

What happens if the United States gives weapons to the Syrian rebels? First and foremost, the United States instantly becomes a de facto ally of al-Qaida; the weapons are likely to end up in al-Qaida’s hands. That sounds absurd and wouldn’t be especially threatening to the West as long as it involves only small arms. But it would look entirely different if the U.S. decides to provide the rebels with surface-to-air missiles that could one day be used against U.S. aircraft.

According to Washington, President Assad crossed a “red line” by using chemical weapons against his adversaries, thus justifying providing weapons to the rebels. But that’s probably the most bald-faced deception since Colin Powell went before the United Nations to claim that Saddam Hussein was planning to use weapons of mass destruction against the West.

If one asks the legal question “Cui bono?” — Who would benefit by doing so? — the conclusion that follows would be that the rebels, and not Assad, have the most to gain by crossing that ominous red line. Getting access to chemical weapons like sarin is no problem these days.

Assad Isn’t as Unpopular as the West Believes

The fact is, the border to Turkey is still open; both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been supplying the rebels with weapons for some time already. U.S. Special Forces have been training Syrian rebels inside Jordan. Would more U.S. weaponry at least help shorten the conflict? In all probability, no; it could even prolong it. So what’s the real reason behind the American policy?

Washington wants to weaken Iran and prevent the formation of a power axis stretching from Tehran to Baghdad and on to Hezbollah in Lebanon. No one can predict how long the conflict in Syria will last. Assad isn’t as unpopular at home as the West claims he is.

Syria Threatens to Disintegrate

Not only Alawites and Christians, but even many Sunni citizens see Assad as the lesser evil when it comes to the growing fanaticism of the al-Qaida allied Nusra front. What could happen if Assad is deposed? Does the United States really believe there would be a spontaneous outbreak of democracy?

They harbored similar illusions about Iraq. The sorry history of the Arab Spring should have taught the West a lesson about realities in the East. Syria threatens to disintegrate and Damascus expects an Islamic theocracy would ensue; the expected conflagration has already spilled over into Lebanon and Iraq.