Al-Qaida Revives America's Worst Fears

The intercepted conversation between al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and the founder of its affiliate in the Arab Peninsula, Nasser al-Wahishi, demonstrates how the network’s main structure is depending more and more on its affiliate leaders, who are spread out across Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Furthermore, the conversation has proven the ability of these associations to keep the West in check.

In that conversation, al-Zawahiri and al-Wahishi speak of carrying out “something huge” at the end of Ramadan. This threat caused the U.S. to order the evacuation of its members from its embassy in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa and to encourage the remaining U.S. residents to leave the country.

The measure led to the closing of the majority of U.S. diplomatic missions in Arab countries and a travel alert sent out last week. The decision has not been well-received by the Yemeni government, which claims that these measures only serve the interests of the extremists.

The death of Osama bin Laden and the siege against al-Qaida’s feudal warlords in Afghanistan and Pakistan, thanks to drone attacks, have weakened the organization’s matrix. However, in the last two years the network has been spreading out its tentacles mainly in the Maghreb (Northwest Africa, including Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya) and the Arabian Peninsula.

Weakening the leadership reduces the odds of an attack on American soil, but the scattering of its cells complicates the process of discovering new terrorist plots, which increases the risk of attacks on U.S. interests throughout the rest of the world.

“[That’s] what happened on this occasion. Due to this actual threat in Yemen there is a very real danger of attacks by these cells in other parts of the region,” explains Christopher Swift, adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University.*

As Ken Gude, an expert in national security for the Center for American Progress, points out, “These dates are also quite symbolic: the end of Ramadan, the anniversary of the attacks in Bombay and Jakarta, 15 years since the attacks in Kenya and Tanzania, [and this] helps explain the level of fear.”*

Yemen’s Ministry of Internal Affairs published a list on Monday of 25 al-Qaida militants who are planning attacks within the next few days on Western interests in Yemen. Among them are the Saudi Ibrahim Suleiman al-Rubaish, a spiritual leader of al-Qaida in his country, and Ibrahim al-Asiri, the explosives expert for al-Qaida’s Yemeni affiliate. Both men are main targets of the CIA’s drone attacks.

Besides Yemen, the Arab Spring has assisted in the intrusion and strengthening of al-Qaida affiliates and other groups in North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. The Iraqi branch has strengthened and the one in Syria recruits hundreds of foreign militants as it takes advantage of the chaos in that country.

*Editor’s Note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.