Egypt Falls into the Abyss

The situation in Egypt is escalating and the West can do little more than watch helplessly from the sidelines. Foreign influence in the nation is limited, but there is still one strategy left.

It was a vain attempt: German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle was the first Western foreign minister to visit Cairo after President Morsi’s removal from power. Shortly before he landed, the new military regime had already ordered the Muslim Brotherhood protest camps cleared and disbanded.

Since then, the situation in the Arab world’s most populous nation has escalated and the world has witnessed brutal violence.

But the potential for German foreign policy to influence matters is no better now than it was two weeks ago. Insistence on nonviolence and a negotiated settlement are right and proper, but no one in a position of authority in Berlin is under the illusion that Germany or Europe will exert much influence when even the United States, Egypt’s principle protector, has realized that there are limits to its power. Its high-ranking emissaries left empty-handed because, unlike the Muslim Brotherhood, the generals in Cairo were in no way prepared to make compromises, not even when the smallest concessions were requested of them.

A Setback for Democracy

Back when the rest of the West breathed a sigh of relief because of the apparent end of the Morsi regime, Westerwelle had a different opinion: He said if Morsi were overthrown, it would be a setback for democracy. At first, he stood alone with that opinion, since U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry vigorously defended the military coup. But Westerwelle’s skepticism prevailed in the European Union. Since the Egyptian generals began shooting their own citizens, nobody supports them any longer.

At the outset of the Arab Spring two and a half years ago, Westerwelle envisioned the dawning of a golden age, thus revealing, like many other commentators, his failure to see the self-destructive aspects of such radical shifts. Studying the French Revolution would have been more valuable in understanding events than reading the lessons taught in the Koran. Only after many excesses and setbacks, after bloody wars and a total revamping of the European map, were the basic principles of 1789 gradually realized.

Violence Is Drawing Egypt into the Abyss

This time, Westerwelle is showing better judgment: His skepticism about the coup was justified even at the time when the ensuing bloodbath hadn’t been predicted. One has to take the principles of democracy seriously, something the West never tires of preaching. Don’t those principles hold true, even if unpopular governments are elected? Morsi’s chosen path might well have failed. Violence, the path chosen by the generals, will only lead the nation into the abyss.

The strongest hand is held by the United States, which supports the Egyptian military to the tune of $1.3 billion annually. Still, no one can predict whether turning off that tap will force the generals to be reasonable, or whether it will just result in destroying law and order.

And what cards can the U.S. play if their strongest trump has already failed?