The System Is Dying; US Has Chance to Survive, Even Maintain Leadership Position

The Only Rational Hope Now Is to Freeze the Conflict

As the media reports, a government crisis has occurred in Libya. Prime Minister Ali Zeidan found himself under the fire of criticism from Interior Minister Mohammed Khalifa al-Sheikh, who cited the theft of oil in the country and the prime minister’s inability to deal with it. As analysts have remarked, the central government has practically no control over Libya’s oil-rich region of Cyrenaica, where criminals run the oil terminals. The predictions of many experts that Libya would slip into chaos if Gadhafi fell are now confirmed in full.

We turned to television journalist Mikhail Leontyev to sum up the situation in the Middle East.

A Systemic, Absolutely Predictable Catastrophe Has Occurred

What happened? They have taken and destroyed the country — a rich country at that. About Egypt, one could say, “They were not living well, anyway,” but Libya was a wealthy country under Gadhafi. Now, bandits control the oil terminals there. They are not idiots. They do not control even a grain of sand — just the terminals. However, if there are bandits, then that is just what they are; they will be caught. A systemic, absolutely predictable catastrophe has occurred. Now, even greater horror will come from Egypt; it is a huge country, with a population just under 100 million. It is not Libya. However, we could say Syria was beaten back.

The whole history is absurd. This is a shining example of how one can have a colossal influence on a situation, but the situation itself is not under control. It is simply impossible. Look, in Egypt the primary political figure is the army — it depends on American money, it follows American orders. But what’s the point?

Actually, there is a feeling of confusion, but there is also an understanding within the Obama administration that this is an absurd policy. Therefore, they do not know what to do practically. What had they anticipated earlier? A system in crisis always begins to act self-destructively. We saw this in the example of the Soviet Union, but now we see it with the Americans. The inability to make an adequate decision is a feature of such a crisis.

Revolutions Cannot Overcome; They Can Only Complete

We are witnessing the shift from the peak of America’s so-called power. At first, there was the idea of the establishment of American order; then, it understood that it was impossible to establish order, and there was an attempt to manage the chaos in some form; then, everything turned into uncontrollable chaos. We spoke of these three phases; now we see them, just like in an educational film.

The only rational hope now is to freeze the conflict. America is attempting to come to agreements with its enemies, and in this region, its enemies are the Iranians and us; however, there is a colossal inertia and mythology that drives U.S. policy which will not allow for this to happen simply, or perhaps not at all, although it recognizes the necessity. Actually, the current administration came here to make a deal. Deals are only made with one’s opponents, not with satellites — that is meaningless. The system is dying; the U.S. still has the chance to survive and maintain its leadership position at a significant level, but it must exit its own system.

There is a general philosophy that revolutions cannot overcome. They can only complete — whether from below or above. Under the current situation, this is to some extent a revolution in the American consciousness. We see that there are signs of it: The U.S. is reindustrializing and trying to give up the geopolitics of oil. It is doing this on the principle of “one step forward, two steps back.” This is beneficial for us — it is an opportunity. However, how will it play out is not the topic of this commentary.