Advantage: Assad

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry praised Syria for its cooperation on the chemical weapons question. Because of that cooperation, many rebels seeking to overthrow Assad feel betrayed. That might help keep the dictator in power for longer than the United States would prefer.

For over two years, the United States denied the legitimacy of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Now, Secretary of State John Kerry praises Assad for his cooperation in ridding Syria of chemical weapons, a process which is proceeding as planned. In cooperation with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, he wants to arrange a peace conference to promote progress in ending the Syrian civil war after Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal has been destroyed. The goal of the conference would be to “promote peaceful, inclusive transition (to democracy) and provide the Syrian people with the safety, security, justice and freedom that they deserve.”

Now the nearly impossible task of bringing the rebels to the negotiating table falls to the United States. It’s precisely those groups with the most military power that feel betrayed by the chemical weapons deal. They had expected military intervention by the United States and when that was not forthcoming, most factions renounced the opposition movement, many of them now fighting under the black banner of the jihadis.

While the U.S. always stressed that the objective wasn’t to determine the outcome of the civil war with its threatened attack, Assad’s air force was always the stated target for U.S. missiles. Air superiority is the decisive advantage the government forces have over the rebels. If Syria totally destroys its chemical weapons arsenal within the prescribed time limit, that’s surely good news for the entire Middle East. But a solution to the conflict won’t be brought one inch closer. Militarily, they play no decisive role in the civil war.

The Free Syrian Army — Marginalized

Assad has succeeded in regaining ground via the assistance of the Lebanese Hezbollah militia and Syria’s ally Iran. He still cannot win the war militarily and the bottom line is he probably won’t be able to stay in power. But that outcome isn’t yet in sight.

In any case, the notion that he could create a new order in Syria is currently not very realistic — not only because his Russian guardian angel is giving no indication that it plans to abandon the Assad regime. Beyond that, it remains unclear who would prop up an “inclusive” democratic government in Syria.

The rebel factions that are acceptable to Western powers as political partners continue to lose importance within Syria; the Free Syrian Army upon which early hopes had been pinned has been marginalized by the jihadis.

The majority of the groups Assad’s troops can keep in check are either already on the list of known terrorists in the United States or soon will be. They have no intentions of establishing a democracy; they intend to create an Islamic caliphate ruled by Shariah law, not human rights. They are funded and supplied with weapons mainly by ultraconservative Gulf states. They owe the Americans nothing. It is to be feared that the Syrian conflict will not only continue but will be carried out with more brutality in the future.