The Moderate Standing in the Middle of the System

Published in Sin Chew
(Malaysia) on 2 October 2013
by Cao Jianting (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Daniel Chow. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
In 2003, Iran suggested beginning negotiations with the U.S. to resolve their differences. The Iranian president at the time was Iran’s first reformist president, Khatami. In the end, the U.S. secretary of state felt that Khatami did not have any real power in Iran and was all talk and no action, while the hardliners and the White House, who had just won a major victory in Iraq, all felt that there was no need to negotiate with Iran. This was how the U.S. and Iran lost the chance to resolve their differences.

Besides promoting “constructive diplomacy” during Khatami’s term, the media and women, among others, all had greater freedom and Iran’s economy improved. But he was being suppressed by a system with the Supreme Leader as its head and had difficulty in implementing his reforms, not only offending local conservatives, but also causing the reformists to be disappointed in him. Average citizens were being attracted to the narodnik* Ahmadinejad’s “social righteousness,” anti-corruption and other, more powerful slogans.

In 2005, Ahmadinejad, who was closer to the grassroots than Khatami, won the election; after he assumed office he was indifferent to human rights and shut down the media, and the economy deteriorated. As a narodnik*, he was happy to build a “courageous speaker” image, purposely making hate speeches against the West and bringing more serious sanctions to Iran.

Khatami, who had silently stepped down, discovered that the “social freedom” championed by the reformists was nowhere near as good as the economic improvement, elimination of social unfairness and corruption proclaimed by the conservatives in the eyes of the people. In the 2009 election, ex-Prime Minister Mousavi, whom Khatami supported, purposely avoided using the reformists’ slogans, facing off against Ahmadinejad directly on the platform of economy and social righteousness issues.

In the 2013 Iranian presidential election, the reformists were banned from participating. Khatami called on the people to support the “moderate” Rouhani. Rouhani won by a landslide. As a leader acceptable to both conservatives and reformists, Rouhani eventually made a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations, ending more than 30 years of stalemate. A shoe was thrown at him by a conservative after he returned home, and the U.S. and Iran may very well be unable to compromise on Iran’s nuclear program, but it’s a good start.

After Rouhani won, Khatami told a group of university students: “We would rather have the reformists’ argument triumph, even though the reformists themselves did not win.” He stressed that a successful Iranian president must be able to coordinate with the Supreme Leader, the latter assisting the president in fulfilling his promises to the people.

It sounds helpless and compromising. But the thinking that one can rely on either the “people” or the “Leader” alone to carry out reforms is equal to dismissing the complexity of the social structure. This is the essence of democratic reforms. When neither side is willing to have discourse and both are on the verge of colliding with each other like two trains, we all need a moderate who does not fear death to stand in the way.

*Editor’s note: A supporter of the rights and power of the people; a populist.


伊朗並非首次向美國伸出了手。

2003年,伊朗向美國提議展開協商,解決美伊之間的所有分歧。當時的伊朗總統,是首位改革派總統哈塔米。結果,美國國務卿認為哈塔米在伊朗沒有實質力量,只能說做不到,而剛在伊拉克大獲全勝的白宮和強硬派都認為沒必要和伊朗協商。美伊當年就這麼錯過了冰釋前嫌的機會。

除了提倡“建設性外交”,哈塔米任職期內,媒體、女性等都有較多自由,伊朗經濟也有改善。但他受以宗教最高領袖為首的體制箝制,改革有心無力,不只得罪了國內的保守派,改革派也對他失望,普通市民則更受內賈德等民粹派“社會公義”、打擊貪腐等比較有力的口號吸引。

2005年,比哈塔米更接近草根的內賈德大選中獲勝,他上台後漠視人權,媒體關閉、經濟持續衰退。作為民粹派,他樂於打造“勇於發言”的形象,故意發表仇恨西方的言論,伊朗遭到更嚴重制裁。

黯然下台的哈塔米發現,改革派強調的“社會自由”在民眾眼中不如保守派聲稱的改善經濟、打擊社會不公和貪腐。他轉向主張“溫和”漸進改革。2009年大選時,哈塔米支持的前總理穆薩維故意避開改革派的口號,直接在經濟和社會公義的平台上對壘內賈德。

2013年伊朗總統大選時,改革派被禁止參選,哈塔米呼吁人民支持“溫和派”的魯哈尼,魯哈尼壓倒性勝出。作為保守派、改革派都較能接受的領袖,魯哈尼最終在美伊外交上達到了突破,打破30餘年來的僵局。他回國後依然遭到了保守派丟鞋子,而且很可能最終美伊依然無法在核計劃上讓步。但這是個好的開始。

魯哈尼勝選後,哈塔米告訴一群大學生:“我們寧願改革派的論述得勝,就算改革派本身沒有勝利。”他強調,成功的伊朗總統必須和最高領袖協調,後者將協助總統達成他向人民作出的承諾。

話中無奈和妥協意味非常強烈。但以為可以依靠“人民”或“領袖”任何一方改革,等於忽略了社會結構的複雜。這是民主時代改革的本質,在任何一方都無意對話、逐漸像兩輛火車頭撞在一起之際,我們都很需要不怕死的溫和派擋在中間。
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