Annan Plan Rehashed

Last December, when President Anastasiades made his views public concerning the content of the joint statement by Greek and Turkish Cypriots, intended to start negotiations to resolve the Cyprus conflict, it was a sign of what was about to follow over the next month. Back then, of course, the government of the Republic of Cyprus declared that the time wasn’t ripe yet.

When Ankara created tension a few days ago over the exclusive economic zone, the Cypriot Minister of Foreign Affairs Kasoulides moved a step forward. He associated the launch of the negotiations with Turkey’s behavior.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland’s visit in Greece and Cyprus was enough to prove that these words were just hot air. In fact, issuing a joint statement had already been planned. That explains why both sides have tabled their proposals about its content, since last December.

The joint statement is critical as it isn’t simply a brief statement noting that negotiations will begin. It’s a kind of a first stage agreement about the constitutional rules that will determine solutions about crucial matters, such as the nature of the state and the power sharing among the united national government and the constituent states.

It is not by chance that in the joint statement (a draft so far, but changes will be negligible) binding statements are included only for the constitutional aspect. The reason is that Turkish Cypriots can only win, while Greek Cypriots can only lose. And that is because the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the United Nations and of the Eurozone. On the contrary, the state entity over the occupied areas remains a pseudo-state, illegitimate in the eyes of the world.

The joint statement is entirely within the framework of the Annan Plan that was rejected by Greek Cypriots 10 years ago (76 percent of them voted against it). The fact that President Anastasiades accepted it causes no surprise. We should point out that he was a fervent supporter of the ”yes” (accepting the Annan plan) in the 2004 referendum. To win the elections he had to declare the Annan Plan history. The truth, however, is that the basis of the plan sat on the docket and now the Americans and the British are trying to serve it again.

President Anastasiades considers the joint statement a huge diplomatic success, as through it, the single international legal personality, its single sovereignty and its single united citizenship are being recognized. The truth is different. When these terms are discussed, all the related explanations being given basically cancel them out. As it is clearly stated, ”The sovereignty (of the new united state) derives both from Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots.” This implies that the new state will not be an evolution of the current Republic of Cyprus, but will emerge out of its dismantling.

In the not unlikely event that the new united state is dismantled, Greek Cypriots will be left without the benefits they have due to today’s Republic of Cyprus. On the contrary, Turkish Cypriots will have been internationally upgraded. The Treaty of Zurich together with the Treaty of London (1959-60) upgraded the Turkish Cypriot entity from a minority to a co-ruling community and will finally be upgraded to a population that deserves having its own state.

The new united state is being called a bi-communal and bi-zonal federation. The truth is that it will be a hybrid that will be referred to more as a confederation rather than a federation. The federal Constitution will assign the powers (to be negotiated) of the federal government, leaving all the others to the bi-communal states (the Greek Cypriot and the Turkish Cypriot). That is true in confederations, while in federations the opposite occurs.

But the single sovereignty will be distorted. As indicated in the text, single sovereignty means the ”external sovereignty,” that coexists with each country’s independence. The crucial thing for the state’s unity, however, is the internal sovereignty. But it will be shattered (!) and it will belong to the constituent states, which leads to a confederation. The same occurs for citizenship. There’s going to be a citizenship of the united state and citizenships of the constituent states!

In other words, through acrobatics, the division is being legitimized, in a way that ensures rights to the Turkish Cypriot side (and through that to Ankara) in southern Cyprus. You should have no doubt that the energy wealth being revealed in the south of Cyprus will be given to the federal government, and through the government shared with Turkish Cypriots. Washington never omits referring to that.

Greek Consent with an American Touch

As demonstrated by the National Council on Cyprus meeting, President Anastasiades is determined to proceed by doing what is introduced by the American-British agents. He was in Athens on a two-day official visit to talk about the ongoing dispute with Turkey and the joint statement. His true aim, however, was to obtain the Greek government’s support, so as to gain an advantageous position from which to handle the internal political front.

The Maximou Hall has significant reservations concerning the direction being taken in the Cypriot issue, but they’re not going to go public with it. Washington took care of that. Victoria Nuland, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, was sent over to prevent any statements that would deliver the message that Athens is having reservations and that would expose President Anastasiades.

Everything shows that the procedure about the settlements of the Cypriot Issue with a variant of the Annan Plan will move fast. Washington, together with other European capital cities, considers the time to be right. A willing president in Anastasiades, and the Republic of Cyprus in Memorandum and Greece sinking even deeper into financial crisis: weakened and dependent, these things create the conditions to establish what was once rejected back in 2004.