Obama Draws a Red Line

Sanctions announced by Barack Obama against Russia for the occupation of Crimea, although the strictest ones since the end of the Cold War, will certainly not make Vladimir Putin want to withdraw from the peninsula.

The White House has no illusions about this. The American president has clearly reconciled with the idea of the change of boundaries. But he has also announced that Crimea will not be viewed by him as a precedent that would open the way for Moscow to make further conquests. That is the point of Obama signing a decree that aims at imposing sanctions not only on individuals, but also on key sectors of the Russian economy if it happens that, at the Kremlin’s order, Russian tanks move any further into the Ukrainian territory.

Crimea has always been a peculiar region of Ukraine — geographically divided from the rest of the country and populated predominantly by Russians, it was annexed into Kiev’s sphere of power only 60 years ago. Donetsk, Kharkow and Odessa are not the same thing. Putin’s occupation of these towns would undoubtedly lead to an all-out war and could persuade the Kremlin to send Russian troops up to the Polish border. The stake is high enough for Obama that he is willing to pay for it with a crisis in the West — only if it brings the Russian economy to its knees.

From the American perspective, giving up Crimea does not have to translate into an act of capitulation. The loss of the province has led to an increase in anti-Russian moods among the Ukrainians. By leaving the Commonwealth of Independent States, the authorities in Kiev have severed the umbilical cord that tied the country to Russia. If the U.S., alongside the EU, succeed in stabilizing the situation in Ukraine and permanently incorporate this country into the Western orbit, the fight with Putin will be won by Obama — a win by a knock-out.