What’s New about the New World Power Authorities?

Published in Oriental Morning Post
(China) on 22 March 2014
by Song Guoyou (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Mollie Gossage. Edited by Kyrstie Lane.
The wives of the U.S. and Chinese heads of state attracted global attention as they appeared together in public for the first time. And just next week, Chinese President Xi Jinping will also have a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama. Chinese and U.S. top-level officials are meeting in an unprecedentedly frequent way; this moment is surely worthy of remembrance in the history of Sino-U.S. diplomacy.
  
Actually, “wife diplomacy” is just the newest incarnation in a series of phenomena overlying the new atmosphere of Sino-U.S. relations. The beginning of Obama’s second term in early 2013 just happened to coincide with the changing of Chinese state leadership, with a new government down to every position. The two nations’ new leaders and diplomats very quickly established smooth and effective channels of communication. With the efforts of both sides, Sino-U.S. relations got off to a good start, achieving a smooth transition.
 
Particularly noticeable were the nations’ leaders’ June 2013 meetings at California’s Annenberg Estate, as these opened up a brand new form of communication between Chinese and U.S. heads of state. In the relaxed atmosphere of informality, the leaders had lengthy, thorough exchanges. This was greatly beneficial for both in building personal trust and deepening understanding. During these meetings, the leaders jointly agreed upon the framework for expanding the Sino-U.S. new model for world powers. Ever since, the development of Sino-U.S. relations has been incorporated into the structure of this new relationship model. America accords positive feedback on the new world power relationship to three reasons: First, seeing the newest developments of the power competition between them, the U.S. must respond to all honest requests from an increasingly powerful China; second, hoping to deepen its relationship with China by proactively accepting the new model for world power relationships, the U.S. will maintain more positive interaction with China; third, hope that marking the new model for world power relationships with America’s seal will better reflect America’s intentions and thereby indicate the direction of U.S. policy formation both globally and on regional issues.

Since the new Sino-U.S. model for world power relationships concept has been introduced, China and the U.S. have opened up to deeper, more effective cooperation. Because as China and America — and China especially — know very well, a concept that simply sounds good is worthless. It must also be useful. In order to enrich the meaning of a new world power relationship, a substantial input of content is required.
  
At the commercial level, new interaction includes the following several points. First, China and the U.S. have conducted negotiations by a negative list and bilateral investments based on access to former national treatment. Presently, negotiations have already entered a significant stage of text negotiation. Second, in areas such as clean energy and energy technology exchange, China and the U.S. have had highly fruitful collaboration and made great headway. Third, the commercial imbalance between China and the U.S. appears to be improving; America’s exports to China are rapidly increasing, while the growth of its trade deficit with China is notably declining. Fourth, China’s direct investments in America are vastly greater than U.S. investments in China, presenting a clear case of reverse investment. Fifth, joint cooperation is helping to facilitate success of the multilateral talks [known as] the Doha round’s “early harvest,” saving the Doha round from the verge of failure and gaining precious time for global free trade.

At the military level, both sides actively devoted themselves to the development of new world power relations and have adapted to fit the new type of military relations. The two nations’ high-level military officers frequently interact. Under both sides’ guidance by the new style of military relationship, two major military operations of mutual notification mechanisms have been established and security standards for maritime naval and air defense have been discussed. By invitation, China will also participate in the 2014 Pacific Rim military exercises.
  
Under the influence of the Sino-U.S. new model for world power relationships, even America’s rebalancing of the Asia-Pacific strategy is showing some signs of adjustment, from Obama’s overemphasis on security in the Asia-Pacific strategy during his first term to a focus on security, politics and economics simultaneously, striving to seek a greater range of acceptance for this rebalancing strategy across East Asia. In addition, since Kerry accepted his appointment as secretary of state, he has also modified Hillary Clinton’s Asia-Pacific strategy, the major targets for adjustment being upon China’s demand — weakening the intended rebalancing “siege” around China, and emphasizing that China will play a constructive role; China relations will constitute the major pillar of the rebalancing of Asia-Pacific strategy. In this sense, America’s Asia-Pacific strategy has already gradually changed from rebalancing China to working with China in rebalancing other regional threats.

The itinerary for U.S. first lady Michelle [Obama's] China visit is also against the backdrop of the gradual strengthening of mutual trust in Sino-U.S. strategy. Former first lady visits to China were different than this time, since Michelle clearly avoided bringing up any political issues, instead focusing attention on education and culture. At a certain level this may also reflect that in the eyes of America’s political elite, China and the U.S. already have ample means to dispute and resolve sensitive topics, so there is no need to play the “first lady diplomacy” card to “indirectly save the nation.”

However, even with the new positioning of the new model for world power relations, bilateral relations still have intense differences. Some disagreements also entail distinctive “new model” features — for example, within newly developing Internet security issues. The U.S. government believes that the Chinese government and its military “launched” a cyberattack upon the American government and other important institutions, their goal being the collection of American diplomatic, economic and defense industry intelligence. Moreover, along with the development of Chinese military power, U.S. concerns over Chinese military forces have also intensified. America denounces the Chinese navy for gathering intelligence along the Hawaii coast and dispatching ships into Guam’s territorial waters without first notifying the U.S. Navy of these activities. Furthermore, in light of China’s lunar exploration project, America also has elevated concerns over China’s space capabilities; they believe that these activities will harm America’s leadership capabilities in space.

All in all, since Obama’s second term began, bilateral relations have headed in new directions, and experienced new developments and breakthroughs. Naturally, there have also been new problems, new contradictions and new conflicts. In the near future, in-depth cooperation can be organized around the following aspects for enriching the content of the Sino-U.S. new model for world power relations. First, to take advantage of adjustments and upgrades to the two nations’ economic structures and form a closer relationship of economic interdependency. Second, to promote solutions for issues in Ukraine and Syria as well as Iraq and other hotspots, and responding to global-level challenges. Third, to jointly advance unity and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, increase mutual trust and achieve positive interaction. Fourth, to properly manage sensitive topics involving China’s fundamental political systems and territorial sovereignty, effectively controlling risks and differences of opinion, and ensuring the peaceful, stable development of Sino-U.S. relations.


大国新局,新在哪里?

中美元首夫人昨日首次共同亮相引来全球瞩目。就在下周,中国国家主席习近平也将与美国总统奥巴马举行会晤。中美两国以一种前所未有的方式进行高密度的顶层互动注定成为中美外交史中一个值得被记住的瞬间。

  实际上,“夫人外交”是中美关系一系列新气象的最新体现。奥巴马2013年年初开始的第二任期,适逢中国政府换届、新政府全面就位。中美两国的新领导以及外交团队很快建立了顺畅有效的沟通渠道,建立了良好工作关系。在双方共同努力下,中美关系开局良好,实现平稳过渡。

  其中尤为引人注目的是,中美两国领导人2013年6月在美国加州的安纳伯格庄园会,开启了中美两国元首交往的一种崭新形式。在非正式的宽松气氛中,中美两国元首进行了长时间的深入交流,这对双方建立私人层面的信任及加深了解大有助益。在此次庄园会上,中美两国元首共同确定了中美新型大国关系为两国关系的发展框架。自此之后的中美关系发展被纳入到新型关系构建的轨道。美国给予新型大国关系积极反馈主要有三个原因:一是正视中美之间实力对比的最新发展,必须对不断强大的中国的真诚诉求有所回应;二是希望通过主动接纳新型大国关系加深对华关系,与中国保持更为良性的互动;三是希望给新型大国关系这一标签打上美方烙印,能够反映美方意愿,能借此塑造美国在全球与地区问题上的政策取向。

  中美新型大国关系这一新的概念被引入之后,中美两国展开了深入有效的合作。因为中美两国,尤其是中国深知,一个概念仅仅好听是没用的,必须能够有用。这就需要给中美新型大国关系注入实质性的内容,以充实新型大国关系的内涵。

  在经贸层面的新互动包括以下几点。第一,中美进行了以负面清单和准入前国民待遇为基础的中美双边投资谈判。谈判目前已经进入了实质性的文本谈判阶段。第二,中美也在清洁能源使用和技术交流等能源领域进行了卓有成效的合作,取得重大进展。第三,中美之间的贸易失衡现象出现可喜改善,美国对华出口迅速增加,对华贸易逆差增幅显著下降。第四,在投资领域,中国对美直接投资远远大于美国对华投资,呈现出鲜明的反向投资的情况。第五,中美还共同合作,帮助促成多哈回合谈判的“早期收获”谈判成功,挽救了濒临失败的多哈回合谈判,为全球自由贸易多边谈判延长了可贵时间。

  在军事层面,中美双方积极致力于发展与新型大国关系相适应的新型军事关系。两国高级军事将领进行了频繁互动。双方以新型军事关系为指导,就建立两军重大军事行动相互通报机制和公海海域海空军事安全行为准则进行商谈。中方还将应邀参加2014环太平洋军演。

  在中美新型大国关系的影响下,甚至美国的亚太再平衡战略也出现了再调整的迹象,由奥巴马第一任期过于重视安全在亚太再平衡战略中的作用转为安全、政治和经济三者并举,以谋求再平衡战略在东亚的广泛接受度。此外,克里接任国务卿以来,也改变了希拉里亚太战略调整主要针对中国的诉求,试图淡化再平衡“包围”中国的意图,强调中国在其中发挥建设性作用,将对华关系作为亚太再平衡战略的重要支柱。在这个意义上,美国亚太再平衡已经从平衡中国逐步变成和中国一道平衡亚太地区其他威胁。

  美国“第一夫人”米歇尔的访华之旅也是在中美战略互信逐渐加强的大背景下得以成行。与以往美国“第一夫人”访华不同的是,米歇尔此次来华访问明确提出避开政治议题,聚焦教育与文化。这从某种程度上或许也可以反映出,在美国政治精英眼中,中美之间已经有足够多的磋商与交流渠道来解决两国间的敏感问题,不需要动用“第一夫人外交”这张牌来“曲线救国”了。

  但是,即使有了新型大国关系的新定位,中美双边关系仍然有尖锐的矛盾。有些矛盾也带有“新型”特征。比如新兴的网络安全问题。美国政府认为中国政府和军方“发起”对美政府及其重要机构的网络攻击,目的是收集美外交、经济和国防工业基地的情报。此外,随着中国军力的发展,美方对于中国军事力量的担忧也在加剧。美国指责中国海军在夏威夷近海收集情报,向关岛海域派遣舰船,而这些活动事先均未向美海军通报。此外,美方也对中国以探月工程为重点的太空能力提升高度关注,认为这些活动将损害美国的太空主导能力。

  总体而言,奥巴马第二任期以来,中美双边关系有新动向、新发展和新突破,当然也出现了新问题、新矛盾和新冲突。未来一段时间,可以围绕以下几方面进行深入合作,进一步丰富中美新型大国关系的内涵。第一是要以两国经济结构调整和转型升级为契机,形成更为紧密的经济相互依赖关系。第二是推动乌克兰、叙利亚以及伊朗等热点问题的解决,应对全球性挑战。第三是共同促进亚太地区的团结协作,增进互信,实现良性互动。第四为妥善处理涉及中国基本政治制度和领土主权的敏感问题,有效管控分歧和风险,确保中美关系和平稳定发展。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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