At What Point Will There Be Military Intervention?

Military intervention in Syria for the purpose of resolving that conflict is not an option for America, nor is it for any other Western power. There is a zero percent chance of this happening. American President Barack Obama made this clear over the past few weeks by speaking about the limits of American power. This is to say nothing of Russia’s recent unprecedented actions, or the complexities of the Syrian conflict itself. Taken together, these factors nullify any basis for military intervention.

But absent any strategy for a political solution, Russia, the Arab nations and the West will face a grave threat if the war between the Syrian regime and the armed opposition continues to drag on. That threat is, in essence, the establishment of an extremist nation that stretches across borders and other nations.

“The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,” or “ISIS” as it is often called, has established its authority over large swaths of Eastern Syria. It is winning in Aleppo, and it is fighting in Idleb, Daryaa, Homs and cities along the Syrian coast. All of this highlights the fact that ISIS also controls the fighters of Jabhat al-Nusra. ISIS has made great gains in Iraq and nobody in the region has been able to turn them back. After Anbar and Fallujah ISIS is now eyeing the Baiji Oil Refinery, which meets the energy needs of most provinces of Iraq.

There is increasing uncertainty due to post-election events in Iraq, and it is thought that the central government has largely lost its grip. ISIS fighters in Syria share control of oil wells with tribal fighters in Ar-Raqqah and Al-Hasakah. The president of the Syrian National Council admitted as much in statements to Al Hayat of London. It seems the way is clear for ISIS to take control of critical oil sites.

Considering both governments’ inability to stop the advance of ISIS, along with its associated extremist groups and allied forces, what is going to stop the formation of an “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant”? If this nightmare scenario comes to pass, Russia, America and the entire region will be faced with a far greater threat than the Taliban, or al-Qaida under Osama bin Laden, or any like-minded extremist group in Yemen, or Pakistan, or even present day Syria. How could Jordan, Iran or the Gulf States accept an al-Qaida entity right over their borders? Would such a state be enough for “the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant”? Or would they take steps to expand even further and export their ideology?

There are probably some who think this scenario is impossible, but the situation on the ground makes it very possible. Who was expecting the conflict in Syria to reach the extent that it did? The situation of the region, indeed the situation of an entire world of exploding crises, is developing into something beyond anybody’s ability to control.

Developments like these will push regional and national powers to intervene in every possible manner, including militarily, to crush the extremists. Perhaps we will see current adversaries become new allies — America and Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia, and so on. Do not think it impossible that America and the Syrian regime may one day find themselves side by side in a war against “the Islamic State of al-Qaida.”

Let nothing surprise you; anything is possible amidst this chaos.