If China Surpasses a Distracted America

Thomas Polgar, who passed away at 91 a few weeks ago, was the last CIA station chief in Saigon and one of the last Americans to leave Vietnam’s capital after the 1975 defeat, and loved to say, “We lost the Vietnam War because of the Chilean coup and the Yom Kippur War.”* To those who wondered, amazed by how a coup in Latin America and a 1973 war in the Middle East could have triggered a defeat in Southeast Asia, Polgar calmly explained that Congress, enraged by both the CIA and its secretary’s endorsement of the Pinochet coup, did not allow any room for maneuver in Vietnam — whether civil or military — and that the economic burden to support Israel after the Yom Kippur War, at the height of the oil crisis, prevented any resistance in Vietnam.

Whether or not he was right on Saigon, old spy Polgar’s manual is often useful. Events of the past, looked at in the present, reveal themselves to be crucial cause and effects in history. We are living historic days, and the world that will come after ours will be different from what we imagine.

But we should at least try to connect the dots. The German ruling class, for instance, essentially remains pro-Putin, convinced that short-term energy interests should eliminate any strategic concern, and if we were to believe the diplomatic cables, Chancellor Merkel has seemingly convinced our government to adapt this “soft” stance, and the interpretations of the Russian sources of the phone call between the Kremlin leader and our Prime Minister Renzi corroborated this. The world has changed! Pro-Russian militias put in place by Moscow in eastern Ukraine — Balaklava, to be precise — have kidnapped the six Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) observers from a German team and have refused to negotiate with Germany’s Foreign Minister Steinmeier with such an arrogance that they have come to be defined as “disgusting.” In the end, however, Berlin turned the other cheek: Worried, sources confirm the former East Germany girl Angela Merkel is the toughest in the country – with industry and finance led by former Socialist Chancellor Schroeder, a Putin lobbyist – and she has conceded that following parts of Georgia and Crimea, Russia could also annex Ukraine, as long as the EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] is not affected.

What can President Obama do about this? Very little. The EU-U.S. rift, which the 2003 Iraq war did not ignite, but rather worsened, is a fait accompli, and in a matter of hours, the White House leader has read bulletins that indicated that China was close to overtaking the United States economy-wise, with the latter conceding the top of the table spot for the first time since 1872, when Gen. Grant was re-elected to the White House. Moreover, the data on the gross domestic product, despite the bad winter excuse, indicates an Italianesque 0.1 percent growth, way below the mediocre 1.1 percent forecasts from the Federal Reserve. To make things worse, a survey by the financial newspaper The Wall Street Journal indicates that half of Americans — 47 percent — are sick and tired of intervening in the world and want the White House to focus on jobs.

An isolationist America like in the 1930s? The ill-advised wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, costing billions of dollars and thousands of lives, have disgusted Americans, yet the majority of citizens consider Obama “too cautious” on Ukraine — whereas 53 percent reject his entire foreign policy and 58 percent reject the economic policy. The studious conservative Max Boot points out the paradox: America does not want to intervene abroad, but does not approve of the foreign policy of a president who hardly intervenes. What’s going on? We are looking for answers further than we should; we have forgotten that President Roosevelt failed to get Congress to declare war until Pearl Harbor, and even after the Japanese attack, Congress hesitated to attack Italy and Germany, which by themselves made the mistake of confronting Uncle Sam. Europeans do not understand that in an unstable world, markets are at risk, and Americans do not understand how economic, political and moral leadership are interconnected: You can’t be the No. 1 country in one of those areas. The American middle class, the richest in the world for a long time, has been surpassed by Canada’s and is losing wealth and status; American infrastructure, roads, bridges, public buildings and communications are being demoted one by one — [resembling the] “third world,” according to the devastating Financial Times report.

But who in the United States has the power to propose a bill that includes public sector jobs, better schools, high-tech defense without waste and cutting subsidies to obsolete industries? Dare make the attempt, and electoral defeat is guaranteed. Therefore, during these days of historical events that don’t make the headlines on websites, the world cannot connect the dots that will accurately trace the future. The U.S. believes it can be a leader without sacrifices; Putin is fooling himself, thinking he can enter Ukraine, without realizing that his increasing aggressiveness has already alerted the Polish, Swedish and Baltics, and will alert other Europeans very soon; China, so far, is the winner of this “special” war in Ukraine, with both the White House and Kremlin racing to woo her, while the latter is enjoying No. 1 economy status in the news — even though at the current pace, it would take decades for the Chinese middle class to have living standards similar to those of Europeans or Americans, as the demographic disaster holds it back, as well as growing political and social unrest.

We are a world of short-sighted people — big and small. Polgar’s lesson is now in the spotlight, as Vietnam, fearful of a Chinese invasion, is cozying up to its old enemies of 1975 — the Americans. For 10 years, Washington has been losing allies because of excessive aggressiveness. Putin in Ukraine and the Chinese in the Senkaku-Diaoyu Islands are making it clear to many (perhaps, finally, even the Europeans), that in any case, it’s better to be allied to the Americans in this complicated 21st century. Meanwhile, Americans are singing, “Who Cares About the World …”** Poor Polgar, rest in peace!

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.

**Editor’s note: “Che M’Importa Del Mondo” is a famous 1960s Italian song by Italian artist Rita Pavone.