U.S.-Philippine joint military exercises commenced on the 5th, clearly as a threat to China. As if Manila’s support of the United States was not enough, there are some people in the U.S. who agree that Washington should launch its own strategy to prevent China’s encroachment on islands and reefs in the South China Sea. These people’s descriptions of the South China Sea policy and hopes for the U.S. are quite simplistic and labeling, far from Asia-Pacific geopolitical realities.
What is happening in the South Sea? Is China really an unscrupulous bully to the small countries around it? If that were the case, then the Philippines and Vietnam would not occupy so many islands and reefs in Nansha. Seeing how the Philippines often appears savage, if aliens came to the South Sea I fear they would view the Philippines as the boss of this region.
Is the United States destined to stage a final China-U.S. military showdown in the South and East China Seas? It’s not that simple. The Philippines and Japan attempt to involve the United States in their territorial disputes with China to save themselves trouble. International relations after the Cold War have never had such blatant logic.
Firstly, disputes over the islands and reefs in the South and East Seas are disputes of national interests. These interests are complexly intertwined, but disputes revolving around them should not lead to strategic confrontation within the country. A conflict of interest will start a game with everyone. In addition to China acting this way with its islands and reefs, the U.S. has also stuck its foot into this affair. Until now, the China-U.S. game has never been so intense in the history of big-power relations.
The extent to which China and the U.S. have fought in the South China Sea comes from both China-U.S. and multi-party interactions. Washington has no decision-making power by itself, and the wish of the Philippines is not a dominant factor. China ‘s strength and attitude have had more and more flexibility; after all, China is not a soft persimmon that people can pinch however they want.
China and the U.S. are the world’s major powers. They both have a big day to pass through. The issue of the islands and reefs has cut into China-U.S. relations. China should not hope for the U.S. to remain truly neutral in the dispute, and the Philippines and Japan should not hope for the U.S. to repair China-U.S. relations for their sake. America can only work with the dispute depending on how it intends to get along with China’s strategies.
China has gradually gained confidence to withstand its game with the United States from the assessment of the overall strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The U.S. needs China, and not allowing China-U.S. relations to break down is in its interests. Washington is not at all willing to let its fleet confront China’s navy in the South Sea.
What’s important is that China has not truly provoked the U.S. The South China Sea dispute has lasted a while, and people with the slightest bit of knowledge can distinguish between restraint and caution in South Sea policies. China is not an imperialist country. In the recent friction in the South Sea, China has neither used military force nor threatened war with the Philippines.
Countries involved must let go of naive ideas to pull the United States along to help them confront China. Their disputes with China ultimately depend on their respective negotiations with Beijing being resolved. They have no strength to challenge China or ability to acquire such strength from the U.S. Reasoning with China is more in line with their interests.
The United States Seventh Fleet could not frighten China. The United States’ military equipment in Guam, as well as its newly deployed military power in the Asia-Pacfic, has little effect on China. The circling of its warships in the South Sea produces completely different psychological effects on the Philippines and on China.
China does not hope that U.S. military presence in Asia will be orderly, but we are gaining more and more power and means to counter its various tricks. Continually accumulated experience and ability can help us work with the U.S. in the new framework of big-power relations.
The Philippines and Japan should not attempt to cover themselves with America’s big banner. They must completely re-understand China and change the ways they handle conflicts of interest. To scare China with the United States is a concept of a small country.
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