Can US Hegemony Really Persist for Another 100 Years?

During a recent speech given in the United States Military Academy at West Point, President Barack Obama proclaimed that the U.S. would continue to lead the world for another 100 years. Obama’s remark coincided with the continual failures of the U.S. on foreign battlefields, thus sparking many debates across the country.

Based on the rise and fall of great powers, there has not been one nation in history that has sustained its hegemony in the world without facing decline. Naturally, the U.S. is no exception. The current question is how long the U.S. can stay in power. Since the beginning of the modern era, the world has given birth to superpowers such as Spain, the United Kingdom and the U.S. The reigns of the first two aforementioned superpowers were not brief. Spain dominated for approximately 100 years, while the UK’s reign reached 300 years.

As a former competitor, the dissolved Soviet Union showed that to compete for hegemony, it is fragile to lack a concrete economic foundation despite having powerful political resources. The cornerstone of American hegemony is precisely its powerful economic foundation.

However, since the early 1970s, the U.S. has faced significant competition from Japan, Germany and other countries in the traditional manufacturing sectors, especially in the four major industries of iron and steel, textiles, automobiles and electronics. The decline of the traditional manufacturing industries directly triggered a debate on the decline of American hegemony. The 2008 financial crisis delivered a heavy blow to the American financial hegemony. From this, the United States’ position for a multi-century domination is showing signs of weakness.

At the same time, however, another set of data contradicts this phenomenon. The U.S. currently accounts for 22 percent of the total world revenue. Since hitting the lowest point post-war in 1975, the distribution of power in the global economy has had no significant changes. Even with changes, the U.S. did not experience a continual decline of military power. On the contrary, the Pentagon’s military budget exceeded the sum of the amounts spent by the seven great powers behind the U.S.

Several major emerging countries, even if they can maintain their current growth momentum, will still require decades before catching up to the U.S. Not to mention that, while the emerging countries are developing, the U.S. is also developing simultaneously.

On the foreign policy front, the U.S. during the Obama era is, in fact, entering a recession. The U.S. clearly appeared to be powerless when confronted with issues on Ukraine, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya. Dick Cheney, former vice president in the George W. Bush administration, criticized Obama as the worst president he had ever seen. Obama’s timing cannot be ignored as the root of his frustration. But considering that the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the U.S. is gradually diminishing, the cyclical military contraction might recover gradually in the next few years. However, Obama might not be able to witness the good times.

This world still needs the U.S., or at least it needs the capital and the market from the U.S. But compared with its global position, the support from the American people is lackluster and the power for political intervention is inadequate. This is the contradiction of the current situation of international politics. During the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in May of 2014, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said, during an interview from China Central Television (CCTV), that if Afghanistan had the chance to start from the beginning, he would certainly choose China’s development model.

If one week is considered a very long time in everyday life, then 100 years would seem like a distant future from a geopolitical point of view. The 100-year world leadership suggested by Obama seems a bit optimistic. Whether the U.S. can continue to lead the world for another 100 years is difficult to predict. Although the hegemony has shown clear signs of weakening, the chances of the U.S. maintaining its position for another few decades are not low.