The Rise of ISIL is an Embarrassment for the US

Recently, the extremist group known as “the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,” or ISIL, advanced through northeastern Iraq, and is now pressing closer to Baghdad in an offensive that has stunned nations in the region and around the world.

ISIL, a former al-Qaida affiliate, is a Sunni Muslim organization that first established a theocratic “Islamic State of Iraq” in 2006, crossed into Syria in 2011 to fight in the civil war there, and in 2013 officially adopted the name of “the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant” with the purpose of creating a unified Islamic state incorporating the territories of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.

The U.S. invasion was the root cause of the chaos seen today in Iraq. Overthrowing Saddam and supplanting the former power-holding Sunnis with the majority Shia shattered the balance of power and intensified conflict between the two groups. Since then, the sectarian struggle has been characterized by uninterrupted violence and acts of terror. The reality of the situation is that the Shia-led central government is incapable of exercising effective control over the whole of Iraq, with the Kurds holding power in the north, Sunni Muslims controlling the east and the Shiite writ lacking authority beyond the central and southern areas of the country. Following the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq in 2011, sectarian violence has grown to the point at which it stands today.

The turmoil in Iraq is also a reflection of the greater regional struggle between Sunni and Shia. The rise of Shiite authority in Iraq magnified Iran’s influence in the region, and led to the formation of the “Shia crescent” of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. This has been the cause of considerable unease within the U.S., as well as Saudi Arabia and other nations around the Persian Gulf. The Gulf States have cheered on the war between Sunni and Shia in Iraq, and along with the U.S. were responsible for instigating the Syrian civil war by pressuring Bashar al-Assad to step down in hopes that such would weaken Iran.

The rise of ISIL not only proves the failure of U.S. policy in Iraq in spectacularly embarrassing fashion, but also puts the U.S. in a difficult position. It cannot ignore the issue, but neither does it know in what way it should best respond. Barack Obama has made clear that he will not send ground forces into Iraq again; John Kerry suggested that air strikes are a likely option, and also said that the U.S. is willing to discuss cooperation with Iran in dealing with ISIL. Kerry’s stance, however, was quickly disavowed by the Pentagon.

Iran has pledged its support to the Iraqi people if requested, and has further stated that it will consider cooperation with the U.S., but at present has no plans to dispatch troops to Iraq.

ISIL espouses radical views and has adopted the use of brutal tactics with suicide bombings and the massacre of 1,700 prisoners of war, an act that has caused outrage and drawn widespread censure from the international community. Its progression through predominantly Sunni regions has been heavily reliant upon the support of Sunni Muslims, and as such its real strength should not be overstated. Its benefactor, Saudi Arabia, has only expressed that it opposes “foreign intervention” and urges the Shia-led Iraqi government to create a more inclusive system. While the ISIL offensive is flagging and it is unlikely to penetrate beyond Sunni areas, eliminating the movement entirely will not be an easy task. Disorder in Iraq looks certain to become a central issue in the region once more.

The chaos can be viewed as an externality resulting from the civil war in Syria, and in that vein, will likely have an impact in the reverse direction by helping Assad further dig in his heels. The Middle East remains as complex a region as ever.

The author is director of the Strategic Research Center at the China Foundation for International Studies.