China and US at a Draw in South Seas

In last weekend’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations regional forum, China and the United States shared their opinions on their gains and losses. Looking at the declaration signed by the foreign ministry, discussing the South China Sea crisis with a fixed amount of space, the U.S. expressed satisfaction. There are Americans who believe that ASEAN countries have grown more united under U.S. encouragement to oppose China. But everyone realizes that the declaration did not say China’s name, and the meeting did not discuss the American proposal to cease all action in the South Sea. The U.S. clearly felt a cold shoulder in the meeting; there was even a comment that it suffered defeat.

Regarding the gains and losses discussed in this meeting, there was a lot of room for opinion, but it was more certain that China and the U.S. are at a draw in the South Sea. This is also probably the game that China and the U.S. play in the entire Western Pacific.

When the U.S. returned to the Asia-Pacific [region] when Hillary Clinton was secretary of state, China was unprepared. Potential points of controversy in the East and South China Seas surfaced one after another, with America’s shadow of encouragement behind them. Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries had not only large-scale operations, but also arrogant attitudes toward China, together giving it geopolitical pressure.

However, in these past years, the chaos surrounding China has gradually subsided with a vague sense of limits. In the Diaoyu Islands, China and Japan have shown willingness to control risk of military conflict. Although fierce language echoes over the East Sea, China and Japan are truly becoming calmer to avoid war.

In the South Sea, China has contained the Philippines and Vietnam’s controversial territories as well as maritime provocation, arousing Western criticism. But the South Sea situation has gradually gained stability; China has clearly gained more right of initiative.

The first wave of the U.S. Asia-Pacific rebalance strategy has been more or less completed. It includes the U.S. returning to the Asia-Pacific, which some countries hope will help balance China’s desire to rise, the amount of trust that the U.S. has earned and the natural advantages of other major countries, among other things. In this stage, the U.S. has been relaxed, and China has spent some energy, but the result is that both countries have limits to their own strategies, which basically makes for a draw.

The reason is that the U.S. has unique qualities, such as a strong military and allies for strategic support. But China’s economic influence is dominant and its allies are closer. One could say that America’s strength is unmatched by China’s proximity. If East Asian countries were forced to stand between China and the U.S. right now, the outcome would be very uncertain. For most countries, standing in the middle best suits their interests.

Therefore, after its first victory, the U.S. wants to continue to give China trouble, but it will not be as easy as it was a few years ago. When it moves forward, it will feel China’s struggle. If the China-U.S. competition increases around the South Sea, both sides will be forced to invest lots of resources.

It should be noted that Chinese actions in the periphery have a clear goal, and that is to defend national sovereignty and [preserve] an environment for national development. These are the core interests of China. The [purpose of] the Asia-Pacific rebalance is for the U.S. to maintain its leadership in Asia, its next level of core interests. China and the U.S. can consider the worst-case scenario of resorting to antagonism, testing their determination to stand their ground. It should be said that China’s determination must surpass that of the U.S.

Besides this, China is still developing rapidly. The U.S., on the contrary, is in decline. The shift in China-U.S. power is bound to receive a different perception every few years. In the China-U.S. game in the Western Pacific, the U.S. is losing its overall advantage.

The China-U.S. draw will last a while. Its overall inclination is in China’s favor, which is a chance for the countries to strengthen their strategic attitudes. The United States should calm down and no longer make unrealistic calculations about China in the East and South Seas. The U.S. is unable to contain China’s united front; China could easily mobilize an East Asian army to drive the U.S. out.