Global Climate Agreement? Fine Words Butter No Parsnips

At night, right after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing, the leaders of the U.S. and China made a joint declaration on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It brings the signing a new global climate treaty closer, but will it save us from global warming?

President Barack Obama announced that the U.S. will reduce greenhouse gas emissions — mainly carbon dioxide emissions — by 26 to 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025 — earlier he promised a reduction of 17 percent by 2020. President Xi Jinping promised that China will peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030, and thereafter, emissions will decrease. This is the first time China gave a specific date after which its greenhouse gas emissions should start decreasing.

Recently, the European Union announced new carbon emissions reduction targets. The leaders of EU member countries agreed on a target of cutting emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.

Of course, one may wonder where the differences in base years come from, and how they will translate into actual reductions. However, this is just a detail. The important thing is that the world’s three biggest producers of greenhouse gases committed themselves to reduce emissions. Last year, the world spewed 36 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air, 28 percent of which was produced by China, 14 percent by the United States, and 10 percent by the EU — Poland is responsible for 1 percent of carbon emissions, 10 percent of which is produced in the power station in Bełchatów. Together the United States, China and EU generate over half of global carbon dioxide emissions. Their voices, then, are crucial in the battle against global climate change.

After the declaration made by Obama and Xi Jinping, the act of signing a global agreement on climate change, which is to take place in December 2015 in Paris, is becoming very realistic. The purpose of the document is to replace the Kyoto Protocol from 1997, which turned out to be totally useless in the battle against global warming.

Unfortunately, the facts indicate that the new agreement will be just as futile.

The research on climate change, which was published in recent years by leading scientific magazines, reveals a pretty apocalyptic vision.

If we don’t significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near future, then already, in this century, we will witness a great leap in the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere and the consequences related to it — increase in the strength of storms and thunder, heat waves, droughts and floods, the rise in sea levels, even by 1 meter by the end of the century, and also the increase in temperature and acidity of the oceans, which will seriously threaten marine ecosystems.

It means that the living conditions of the rapidly growing world population — from 7.2 billion today to even 13 billion in 2100 — will deteriorate drastically. Many places on Earth will not be suitable for habitation. We can expect great migrations and wars for supplies, including the most important, water. Research proves that natural climate change finished off many civilizations and empires in the past.

This is why the declarations made by the EU, America and China about the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are definitely too conservative.

They are just declarations. The most powerful and realistic is the promise made by the EU. China promises, however, that its already huge emissions will still be growing. Barack Obama can promise a lot, but his signature on the Paris climate treaty will be as insignificant as Bill Clinton’s signature on the Kyoto Protocol. Just like then, it doesn’t look like the U.S. Senate — where the majority are Republicans who do not believe in climate changes — is going to ratify the treaty.