Cheap Shot Extravaganza

The main topic being discussed in the wake of Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the U.S. Congress is the strained relationship between Obama and the Israeli prime minister. But the future of Iran’s nuclear program doesn’t depend on that relationship.

According to Israeli calculation, we’re now in year 20 of a new era. Warnings by Benjamin Netanyahu — and others — that Iran would have a nuclear weapon in three to five years, stretch all the way back to at least 1992. In his most recent red-line warning, he shortened the time frame to a year and told Congress on Tuesday that it could happen even sooner than that. Unlike Barack Obama’s red line for Syria, it can be argued that Iran hasn’t crossed any lines lately, but that didn’t matter to Netanyahu when he addressed Congress.

With his defiance, Netanyahu has probably accomplished only one thing: America now thinks the danger posed by Tehran probably isn’t all that great and has been replaced by a squabble between two politicians. So much is being made of the ruined relationship between Obama and Netanyahu. U.S.-Israeli friendship has been damaged for at least several years because there was no White House meeting between Obama and Netanyahu.

Netanyahu Thinks Obama Is a Wimp

It’s all nonsense. It’s just Netanyahu being Netanyahu. He’s been aggravating the U.S. president for years. Obama doesn’t see Netanyahu as someone with whom he can negotiate and for his part, Netanyahu thinks Obama is a wimp. All that is common knowledge. Now Obama is showing his displeasure with Netanyahu’s undiplomatic deed while Secretary of State Kerry negotiates limiting Iran’s nuclear program. In Switzerland, they’re talking centrifuges and international inspectors. Compared to that, Netanyahu’s speech is little more than political theater.

To be sure, Netanyahu doesn’t want to miss a single opportunity to pressure Obama in Congress concerning the Iran negotiations. It’s a welcome opportunity, especially just before the Israeli elections. But he can’t affect the negotiations in Switzerland and when Congress takes up the subject of future sanctions on Iran, what will matter is what Kerry brings home from the negotiations, not anything Netanyahu might tell Congress.

Israel Is Dependent on the U.S. Negotiators

Israel’s intelligence services have long since advised Netanyahu that he has no military options against the Iranian nuclear program. In any case, Mossad believes Netanyahu is inflating the acute dangers posed by Iran. On that basis, he will be unable to get much international support for military intervention, especially in view of the fact that the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State is already aimed at leaders in Tehran. But Netanyahu has no alternative weapons in his arsenal. He demands tougher negotiations but that’s a cheap shot. Israel, it would appear, is dependent on the U.S. negotiators.

Thus, with his Washington visit, the Israeli prime minister won’t cause much more than heavy diplomatic seas, even if he still thinks there’s an electoral victory to be gained from it.