Is Abe’s ‘Soft Spine’ toward the US Just a Ploy?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 7 August 2015
by Xiong Dayun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The website WikiLeaks has revealed that since 2006, the United States has wiretapped 37 key targets within Japan. The news resonated strongly among the Japanese public, with some officials even going so far as to label the U.S. methods as “simply shameless and base.” Oddly, however, the atmosphere among Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet was decidedly unperturbed, with Abe only producing a statement that Japan must “check the true intentions of the United States” four days after the initial announcement.

The domestic response came in the form of the Japanese opposition camp expressing extreme indignation at such submissiveness and widespread dissatisfaction among the general population, with some website users scornfully remarking that Japan had been “neutered” as a nation. Facing this surge of popular opinion, Abe had no choice but to hold a phone conference with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on Aug. 5 to express his “protest” at the wiretapping.

Japan is not the first U.S. ally to have its leaders monitored in such fashion. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff issued statements strongly condemning the spying as soon as it was discovered that they had been targeted. So why has Abe, who has always made a point of showing strength toward regional neighbors, now lost his backbone? According to the observations of this author, Abe's “spinelessness” when it comes to the United States is likely a result of the following three factors.

First is the need to prioritize his guarantee to pass security-related legislation. As everyone knows, bolstered by the ruling coalition's absolute majority in the Japanese Diet, Abe guaranteed to the U.S. Congress during his visit to the United States in May that he would pass security-related legislation before the end of the year, enabling a “seamless response” between the Japan Self-Defense Force and U.S. military and turning Japan into a comprehensive war machine capable of following the United States in and out of battle around the world.

However, the security bill hit a roadblock in Japan due to resistance from the opposition party, the majority of academics, and more than 60 percent of the general population. In a country where large-scale gatherings have been rare over the past several decades, there suddenly appeared a succession of marches and demonstrations to demand that the security legislation be scrapped. Although Japan’s House of Representatives powered the bill through, it had yet to gain the approval of the House of Councillors, an endeavor that was already shaping up to be a spectacular fight. It was at this junction that the news of U.S. wiretapping appeared out of the blue to throw another wrench in Abe's plans. If Abe were to make a show of strength toward the United States, it very likely would have affected the security legislation that his party was putting all its efforts into passing, leaving the prime minister with little choice but to try to play things down.

Second is that the United States and Japan have a tacit understanding of each other’s calculus. As all are aware, the alliance between the two nations was originally built upon the unequal relationship that followed Japan's defeat in World War II and the U.S. military's subsequent occupation of the country, and from the very beginning the two nations each had their own separate objectives. That situation has continued to unfold to where we are today. As the United States wishes to maintain control over East Asia (or even all of Asia), it needs Japan to be its muscle in the region, but at the same time, the United States also needs to watch Japan closely lest the island nation's growing power embolden it to turn against its wartime adversary once again. On the other hand, Japan will depend even more upon the might of the United States to fulfill its desire to maintain its prestige as the dominant power within Asia. While a subconscious impulse to cast off U.S. control exists within the very bones of Japan, until such a time as it is powerful enough to do so, it still needs U.S. support. This sort of latent conflict, with the United States and Japan both using each other while not letting down their guard, necessitates that on the surface they make a show of joining hands, but also that they never cease probing for what cards the other has hidden. As an old hand at the final table, Abe knows how the game is played and that such goings-on are common for both parties, and consequently he doesn't feel compelled to kick up a fuss. Much better to simply smooth things over and drop a few innuendos around the subject, all with the understanding that in the future, well, you gotta do what you gotta do.

Third, one cannot exclude the possibility that Japan is quietly biding its time, absorbing such slights and only momentarily feigning anger to win even greater trust and support from the United States in service of something greater. There is a well-known story in Japan regarding the “47 ronin,” loyal samurai who seek revenge for the unjust end brought upon their master by silently enduring humiliation and even feigning madness in order to deceive the enemy, successfully accomplishing their sworn purpose in the end. This story was later rewritten into a television drama that became popular throughout Japan, and has been called a classic example of Bushido loyalty. For Abe, who is himself a fervent admirer of the Bushido code, such Dantèsque patience should be within his blood. When his typical modus operandi is to not allow even the smallest of slights to go unpunished, who yet knows but that his swallowing his anger today may be a small sacrifice in order to realize some grand design. As for what exactly that grand design may be, I fear his ambition makes it only all too clear.
The author is a scholar living abroad in Japan.


  “维基解密”网站公布,美国从2006年开始就监听日本37个重要目标。对此日本舆论大哗,有的官员甚至激烈地批评美国的做法“简直是下流无耻”。奇怪的是,安倍内阁则表现得出奇冷静。时过4天,安倍才表示首先“要确认美国的真实意图”。
  对于安倍这种卑躬屈膝于美国的态度,在野党表示极大义愤,草根百姓也不买账,有的网友在网上直骂日本已经是一个“被阉割了的国家”。面对群情汹涌的舆情,安倍不得不在5日与美国副总统拜登举行电话会谈,对美国的窃听表示“抗议”。
  美国窃听盟国首脑,日本并非第一家,德国总理默克尔、法国总统奥德朗以及巴西总统罗塞夫都在被爆遭窃听的第一时间发表声明强烈谴责。那么对邻国向来示强的安倍为何此时表现出严重的缺钙症呢?据笔者观察,安倍对美“软骨头”大概有以下三点原因。
  一是出于优先保障安保关联法案过关的需要。众所周知,安倍倚靠执政联盟在国会的绝对多数议席,5月访美时在美国议会做出保证,要在今年内通过日本安全保障的关联法案,实现日本自卫队与美军的“无缝对接”,使其成为一支能跟随美国出入世界各地作战的全方位战争机器。
  但是,安保关联法案在日本受到在野党、大多数学者和60%以上民众的强烈反对,几 十年来很难看到大规模集会的日本竟然在各地此起彼伏地出现了强烈要求废除安保关联法案的游行示威活动。虽然众议院强行通过了该法案,但还须接受参议院的审 议,必然有一番好戏上演。这时凭空杀出窃听事件这个程咬金,安倍如果对美示强,有可能影响到正在全力冲关的安保法案,因此他只能大事化小。
  二是日美两国各有心照不宣的盘算。人们知道日美两国的结盟肇基于日本战败、美军对 日占领这样一种不平等关系之上,自始两国就各有盘算。发展到今天,美国欲继续控制东亚乃至亚洲,需要日本做打手,同时美国也需要看护日本,使其不得随着实 力的增长而萌生异志。另一方面,日本想延续亚洲霸主的辉煌,更需要借助美国的力量,日本骨子里一直存在最终摆脱美国控制的潜意识和冲动,但在力量不够坚实 时,仍然需要美国托底支持。日美两国这样一种既相互利用又彼此警戒的潜在矛盾,势必使它们在表面高喊合作的同时都得留一手,相互探测对方底牌的活动从来没 有也不可能停止。作为大管家的安倍对此心里有底,大家彼此彼此,因而也就没有必要为此伤了脸面,和和稀泥,点到为止,以后该怎么的还得怎么的。
  三是不能排除日本“卧薪尝胆”,忍受“胯下之辱”,以一时的“装熊”换取美国的更 大信任和支持以售其奸的算计。日本有一个家喻户晓的“47义士”故事,说的是47位赤穗义士为死于不公的主君报仇,长期忍辱负重,甚至装疯卖傻,骗过仇 敌,最终得以成功。这个故事后来被改编成电视剧风靡日本,被称为武士道忠孝的典范。对武士道推崇有加的安倍血液里应该有这种基因,他今天的忍气吞声,对于 这位以“睚眦必报”风格见长的人来说,或许是一种为了实现“大谋”而“小忍”的伎俩亦未可知。至于安倍的大谋为何,恐怕是“司马昭之心路人皆知”!
(作者 是旅日学者)
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