The campaign for the presidential election could have taken a civilized turn. Hillary Clinton among Democrats, Jeb Bush among Republicans: two well-known names, holding consensus positions within their parties. But it is outsiders who are in the forefront.
Donald Trump, early on regarded as entertainment, is now taken very seriously. He owes his popularity to his xenophobic campaign mono-theme, immigration, tapping into the white man’s fear of seeing his country transformed. He owes it also to his style — insult, confrontation, sarcasm — which allows him to monopolize the media, cowboy-fashion, fearing neither God nor man.
His latest provocation to date: Tuesday, he forcibly expelled a journalist from his press conference. Not just anyone: It was the Latino presenter Jorge Ramos, one of the figures from the powerful Hispanic channel Univision, with which Trump is, moreover, in a lawsuit. This is not the first time that he tackled a journalist, having said of a CNN presenter whom he considered aggressive: “You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her … wherever.”*
A Rebellion
With 30 percent intending to vote for Trump in the Republican primary, according to the latest Reuters poll, Republican voters seem to be turning toward the extremes. As in 2010, during the emergence of the tea party? “Trump’s appeal extends beyond the appeal that the tea party held. It’s a rebellion, yes, but of a slightly different flavor than 2010,” says The Washington Post, which conducted a comparative study of the two electorates. Thus, Trump supporters are less conservative in their values than those of the tea party; they are younger, earn less money, and hold fewer college degrees. They are mostly less religious, and do not hold it against the candidate for having conveniently flip-flopped on abortion by rejoining the pro-lifers after having defended the right of abortion.
A radicalization is also, to a lesser extent, perceptible on the left: Bernie Sanders attracts, in his way, the dissatisfaction toward the political class. But whereas Trump plays the card of America’s decline and mocks the “stupidity” of the electorate, Sanders centers his discourse on denouncing inequalities, the power of Wall Street and Washington’s submissiveness to lobbies. His popularity is growing, but his electoral base — white, educated, well to the left — remains narrow.
A Lifeline?
If the difficulties of Hillary Clinton, who remains the favorite for the Democratic nomination, turn into a downward spiral, the party will seek a lifeline. Joe Biden? The current vice president, 72, already twice an unsuccessful candidate in the 1998 and 2008 primaries, is a popular figure. And he leaves open some doubt on a possible candidacy, saying that he will decide in September — surely before the first Democratic debate, planned for October 13. His image, according to polls, is of a “trustworthy” and “honest” man who was able to stay out of scandals despite decades in politics. But his propensity to make gaffes is a definite handicap.
Biden, still in a state of shock from the death of his son Beau, who died of cancer in May at age 46, met privately last weekend with Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, whose tough attacks against the excesses of Wall Street appeal to the left wing of the party. Since then, the press has increasingly speculated on a possible Biden-Warren ticket, which could inconvenience Obama and his entourage, who had staked everything on Clinton, but who will no doubt revise their support if she pulls back.
*Editor’s Note: Trump made this comment in reference to Fox News Channel anchor Megyn Kelly.
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