Obama’s Good Stopgap

President Obama averted the blockade threat against the nuclear deal with Iran in Congress. Opponents and supporters find good arguments in the contract. An analysis.

The nuclear deal with Iran is a triumph of diplomacy. Few had expected that the ayatollah’s strict conditions could be met despite the executioner’s axe of sanctions looming over their heads for another 10 years. The pact is also a document of failure. It affirms that diplomats failed during the previous decade by trying to persuade Iran to completely abandon its nuclear program.

As was revealed in 2002, there was a facility in Natanz where 164 centrifuges for uranium enrichment existed, just as Washington planned to eliminate Iran’s archenemy Saddam Hussein. In 2009, as Barack Obama moved into the White House, Iran was already running 10,000 centrifuges. When Iran finally negotiated in earnest two years ago, there were 19,000. Iran would need less than 12 weeks to enrich enough uranium for a bomb. The agreement now makes certain that until 2025, Iran will require more than 12 months to enrich that amount of uranium. But after a 15-year-long transition period, in which the country gradually gains nuclear freedoms, the rights and obligations of Iran to the nuclear proliferation treaty will no longer be distinguished from other signatories by 2040. The threshold for nuclear power hasn’t yet reached the threshold of a detonated nuclear device, but Iran supposedly has all the necessary capabilities, and that threshold could be met earlier than 2040.

Renegotiating — It Can’t Get Better

So, both Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were wrong: The review of the Vienna Compromise isn’t crystal clear. It doesn’t eliminate the worry of a nuclear arms race in the most dangerous region of the world; it merely postpones it at best. On the other hand, Netanyahu and the Republicans can’t explain how the threat could be better addressed. The assertion that one could have gone to the negotiating table requiring stricter rule enforcement is cheap. It leaves the world no choice but to trust the judgment of the best negotiators from the USA, China, Germany, United Kingdom, France and Russia. Regardless, the path to a better agreement is blocked at this point. America announced the pact is still on, and the West would then have to split on the issue — to Iran’s delight.

The agreement fills 160 pages, and there are a number of devils stuck in the details. Opponents have the potential to generate some fear regarding its contents: Iran should not close nuclear facilities, can do further work on centrifuges, and could use its nuclear capabilities in the short run as a means of threat in its quest for hegemony. Sanction-building has been destroyed. Iran’s secret side agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency will hardly lead to clarity about its attempts to construct a nuclear weapon. Iran also received too much time to cover up its tracks. After the drop in arms embargo in five years, Iran could even buy missile parts in 2023. And last but not least, Tehran gets access to significant money via access to frozen assets and oil trade that it will pass on to terrorists from Yemen to Lebanon to Syria.

Unprecedented Controls in the Nuclear Agreement

On the other hand, the group of six has imposed unprecedented controls on Iran, monitoring the fuel cycle from the mine to the centrifuge. In addition, Iran neutralized about 97 percent of its stockpile of fissile material, shut down two-thirds of its centrifuges, and must monitor the research on more efficient models. The reactor in Arak is irreversibly converted so that no more plutonium is made. Obama is confident that his intelligence would be able to discover secret investments of acquisitions. The oversight intends to know so much about Iran’s past activities that disclosure is not a priority. The system, which is expected to guarantee inspectors access to suspicious labs on military bases within four to six weeks, is in any case better than the previous rules, according to which Iran had the last word.

The “snap-back mechanism” is a masterpiece of diplomacy. Each permanent member of the United Nations Security Council alone can set international sanctions against Iran back into force. In fact, China and Russia, as well as the Europeans opposing America, have waived their right of veto despite all tensions. The nuclear deal still doesn’t mark the end of the line for politics. Just as it doesn’t exclude military strikes against Iranian facilities for all time, it solves so few of the many acute problems with Iran.

Hopefuls refer to Iran’s young, Western-oriented population. While Berlin is especially eager to keep Iran closely involved, Obama shouldn’t overplay his hand. He can indeed prevent Congress from blocking the deal with his veto, a veto to which the president is rightly entitled given his great diplomatic achievement. But Obama knows that a majority of the representatives are against his policy on Iran. These are no grounds for a comprehensive compromise, especially during primary campaigning. However, a Republican president would benefit should Iran’s nuclear wings be clipped — completely without war.