According to some international organizations’ most recent evaluations and forecasts, the future of the world’s economy will face a more challenging period. The economic recovery that was expected in the spring is still yet to come. Amidst uncertainty and doubt, there will inevitably be people who will take the economic depression’s causes and grievances and sprinkle them on China’s head. The mantra of academics from different countries has been, “China’s economy has slowed, which has been a burden on the world’s economy.” The hope is for China to quickly become a machine of perpetual growth, and many countries share this desire.
However, China is currently halted in the left turn lane. Having experienced over 30 years of continual reform and struggle, China is finally taking the chance to catch its breath — adjusting its rhythms, perfecting its steps, smoothing out its transformations and saving up while waiting to produce again. China is planning and preparing its new five-year plan; the new economic development targets will inspire the world. The whole world is holding its breath waiting for China’s new five-year plan to be released.
China’s most recently announced 12th five-year economic development report has given people a pleasant surprise: China’s economic growth rate ranks among the best in the world, with annual growth stable at around 8 percent. In 2014, total economic output reached 636.139 billion yuan, the equivalent of $10.4 trillion. The global share reached 13.3 percent, ranking second place in the world. Of particular interest was the proportion of tertiary industry, which reached 48.1 percent, and rose once again to 49.5 percent in the first half of 2015. These factors all indicate that China’s industrial foundation and economic transformation has achieved favorable results.
It is under these circumstances that the American-led Trans-Pacific Partnership has come into the limelight, giving rise to attention from all walks of life. People are all waiting to see what the TPP means for China and the future of the world’s economy, and whether it will be a blessing or a curse.
We ourselves should have a clear and sober understanding and good judgment: The world continues to look for a new economic engine. If China continues to bear the pressures of the economic downfall and in the short term cannot also find ways to live up to the world’s expectations, then it will be unable to prevent other countries from looking for their own source for getting rich. The TPP could perhaps become the life preserver that the world economy is looking for.
We should recognize and accept this possibility: If China’s GDP in the long term maintains the highest level of 7 percent or less, it can be assumed that the world faces the ushering in of the “after China” age. This is because 7 percent GDP growth is regarded as a sustainable target for China, but for the rest of the world, China growing at 7 percent only constitutes a baseline indicating it’s barely surviving. This is clearly not a reassuring fact to put the world at ease.
In reality, the problem is not whether or not China can stand alone in high-speed development. Within the past 30 years, China was only able to maintain long-term double-digit growth by relying on the full cooperation of the world. However, after the 2008 American financial crisis, the situation has changed. The U.S. in particular began to blame the problems existing within its own economic structure — the difficulties in transforming its own methods of growth and all its own system’s intrinsic maladies exposed during the crisis — on China. During the past three decades, the world has considered China as the leader in economic development, running mad at the head of the pack, naturally and unrestrained. When the pack leader is tired and begins to slow down, it’s customary for the sheep in the back of the flock to begin to grumble about the leader not only obstructing the path forward, but also eating from the fertile ground and protecting its own interests. Complaints run high and people begin rejoicing in others’ misfortune. Those who originally had common interests secretly begin pulling the carpet out from each others’ feet. I am worried that China is no longer glorious, worried that we are back to square one. It is of surprise, therefore, that the TPP — this “freak” — was born.
The reason the TPP is strange lies in its being contrary to Western countries’ repeated principle of transparency. Anything Western has a double standard; human rights, counter-terrorism and now transparency are all the same.
Since the U.S. has joined the TPP negotiations, secrecy has become the mark of the partnership’s negotiations. Even at the time of its announcement, the TPP’s core secrets have still not been made public. This is an extremely unusual approach. This makes clear that the TPP has hidden secrets beyond the sphere of economics. There must be some trade content within its secrets, information that can even influence local and global stability. America has criticized the lack of transparency in the establishment of China’s Asian Investment Bank, but in reality, the United States is the one that remains in the dark room in creating the TPP.
Another strange thing about the TPP lies in the fact that, on the surface, it is involved with economic and trade cooperation; however, the fact that it excludes the world’s biggest trading nation, China, is incomprehensible. Therefore, people’s suspicions of the TPP’s true intentions and purposes are entirely merited.
This author worries that the TPP is becoming the second Paris planning conference, using a soft knife to challenge China and compel it into submission during future conflicts. China in the past has spent a great deal of resources to apply to join various international economic financial institutions; although this has served to train many professionals, it has still wasted a lot of good natural resources and good opportunities. It seems that America is happy to allow China to apply for membership in the TPP, as this could satisfy America’s old vanity and uphold its belief in its own power to draw up international rules and regulations.
Overall, the birth of the TPP gives people an odd feeling. Certain international economic institutions under the leadership of the U.S. increasingly resemble secret society organizations, like the clandestine, dark criminal underworld of old Shanghai, permeated with old-world habits and with the West’s propaganda of democracy, justice and transparency seemingly irrelevant.
Xi Jinping recently pointed out that China must do something to be involved in world governance. Otherwise, many of the world’s small countries will be kidnapped by a secret society, which will be to the world’s detriment.
China is in the left turn lane making adjustments, ensuring that it will have a new start. China’s 13th five-year plan is waiting to be achieved.
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