TPP Definitely Has Hidden Secrets

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 24 October 2015
by Liu Zhi Qin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Benjamin Kalman. Edited by Eva Langman.
According to some international organizations’ most recent evaluations and forecasts, the future of the world’s economy will face a more challenging period. The economic recovery that was expected in the spring is still yet to come. Amidst uncertainty and doubt, there will inevitably be people who will take the economic depression’s causes and grievances and sprinkle them on China’s head. The mantra of academics from different countries has been, “China’s economy has slowed, which has been a burden on the world’s economy.” The hope is for China to quickly become a machine of perpetual growth, and many countries share this desire.

However, China is currently halted in the left turn lane. Having experienced over 30 years of continual reform and struggle, China is finally taking the chance to catch its breath — adjusting its rhythms, perfecting its steps, smoothing out its transformations and saving up while waiting to produce again. China is planning and preparing its new five-year plan; the new economic development targets will inspire the world. The whole world is holding its breath waiting for China’s new five-year plan to be released.

China’s most recently announced 12th five-year economic development report has given people a pleasant surprise: China’s economic growth rate ranks among the best in the world, with annual growth stable at around 8 percent. In 2014, total economic output reached 636.139 billion yuan, the equivalent of $10.4 trillion. The global share reached 13.3 percent, ranking second place in the world. Of particular interest was the proportion of tertiary industry, which reached 48.1 percent, and rose once again to 49.5 percent in the first half of 2015. These factors all indicate that China’s industrial foundation and economic transformation has achieved favorable results.

It is under these circumstances that the American-led Trans-Pacific Partnership has come into the limelight, giving rise to attention from all walks of life. People are all waiting to see what the TPP means for China and the future of the world’s economy, and whether it will be a blessing or a curse.

We ourselves should have a clear and sober understanding and good judgment: The world continues to look for a new economic engine. If China continues to bear the pressures of the economic downfall and in the short term cannot also find ways to live up to the world’s expectations, then it will be unable to prevent other countries from looking for their own source for getting rich. The TPP could perhaps become the life preserver that the world economy is looking for.

We should recognize and accept this possibility: If China’s GDP in the long term maintains the highest level of 7 percent or less, it can be assumed that the world faces the ushering in of the “after China” age. This is because 7 percent GDP growth is regarded as a sustainable target for China, but for the rest of the world, China growing at 7 percent only constitutes a baseline indicating it’s barely surviving. This is clearly not a reassuring fact to put the world at ease.

In reality, the problem is not whether or not China can stand alone in high-speed development. Within the past 30 years, China was only able to maintain long-term double-digit growth by relying on the full cooperation of the world. However, after the 2008 American financial crisis, the situation has changed. The U.S. in particular began to blame the problems existing within its own economic structure — the difficulties in transforming its own methods of growth and all its own system’s intrinsic maladies exposed during the crisis — on China. During the past three decades, the world has considered China as the leader in economic development, running mad at the head of the pack, naturally and unrestrained. When the pack leader is tired and begins to slow down, it’s customary for the sheep in the back of the flock to begin to grumble about the leader not only obstructing the path forward, but also eating from the fertile ground and protecting its own interests. Complaints run high and people begin rejoicing in others’ misfortune. Those who originally had common interests secretly begin pulling the carpet out from each others’ feet. I am worried that China is no longer glorious, worried that we are back to square one. It is of surprise, therefore, that the TPP — this “freak” — was born.

The reason the TPP is strange lies in its being contrary to Western countries’ repeated principle of transparency. Anything Western has a double standard; human rights, counter-terrorism and now transparency are all the same.

Since the U.S. has joined the TPP negotiations, secrecy has become the mark of the partnership’s negotiations. Even at the time of its announcement, the TPP’s core secrets have still not been made public. This is an extremely unusual approach. This makes clear that the TPP has hidden secrets beyond the sphere of economics. There must be some trade content within its secrets, information that can even influence local and global stability. America has criticized the lack of transparency in the establishment of China’s Asian Investment Bank, but in reality, the United States is the one that remains in the dark room in creating the TPP.

Another strange thing about the TPP lies in the fact that, on the surface, it is involved with economic and trade cooperation; however, the fact that it excludes the world’s biggest trading nation, China, is incomprehensible. Therefore, people’s suspicions of the TPP’s true intentions and purposes are entirely merited.

This author worries that the TPP is becoming the second Paris planning conference, using a soft knife to challenge China and compel it into submission during future conflicts. China in the past has spent a great deal of resources to apply to join various international economic financial institutions; although this has served to train many professionals, it has still wasted a lot of good natural resources and good opportunities. It seems that America is happy to allow China to apply for membership in the TPP, as this could satisfy America’s old vanity and uphold its belief in its own power to draw up international rules and regulations.

Overall, the birth of the TPP gives people an odd feeling. Certain international economic institutions under the leadership of the U.S. increasingly resemble secret society organizations, like the clandestine, dark criminal underworld of old Shanghai, permeated with old-world habits and with the West’s propaganda of democracy, justice and transparency seemingly irrelevant.

Xi Jinping recently pointed out that China must do something to be involved in world governance. Otherwise, many of the world’s small countries will be kidnapped by a secret society, which will be to the world’s detriment.

China is in the left turn lane making adjustments, ensuring that it will have a new start. China’s 13th five-year plan is waiting to be achieved.


刘志勤:TPP一定有着不可告人的秘密

 根据一些国际机构的最新评估和预测,未来的世界经济将面临比较困难的时期。人们期待的经济复苏的春天迟迟没有出现。在彷徨和疑虑中,总有人把经济不振的原因和怨气洒在中国的头上。“中国经济放缓,拖累了世界。”成为一些国家学者的口头禅。希望中国成为促增长的永动机,是许多国家的美好愿望。

但是中国目前正站在左拐弯等候区。经历30多年的不断改革和奋斗,中国终于等来了难得的喘息机会:调整节奏,完善措施,顺利转型,积蓄待发。中国正在筹划新的五年计划,新的经济发展指标将令世界振奋。全世界都在屏息等待中国新的五年计划的发布。

中国最新公布的“十二五”经济发展报告,却给了世人一个新的惊喜:中国的经济增速在世界名 列前茅,年均增速保持在8%左右。2014年的经济总量达到6361.39亿元,折合10.4万亿美元。世界份额达到13.3%,稳居世界第二的位置。尤 其令人关注的是,第三产业比重达到48.1%,在2015年上半年又上升到49.5%。这些都表明,中国的产业结构和经济转型均取得理想结果。

正是在这种形势下,美国主导的TPP粉墨登场,引起各界关注。TPP对中国,对世界意味着什么,对世界经济的未来是祸或是福,人们都在观望中。

我们自己应当有个清晰和清醒的认识与判断:世界继续寻找一个新的经济发动机,如果中国继续承受经济下行的压力而在短期内又没有办法达到世界的预期的话,那么是无法阻止其它国家寻找“发财源”。TPP 或许就成为世界经济下沉时救命的一根稻草。

我们应当承认并接受这样一个可能性:中国的GDP如果长期保持在最高7%的水平以 下,那么可以认为世界将面临“后中国”时代的来临。因为,7%的GDP增长,对中国而言是个“可持续发展”的指标,而对于全世界而言,中国的7%,则只意 味着是一个“可生存活命”的底线。这显然是不能令世界安心和放心的事实。

其实问题并不是中国能否靠一家之力保持高速发展。在过去的三十年里,正是依靠世界 的鼎力合作才使得中国能够长期保持两位数的增长率。但是,在2008年的美国金融危机爆发之后,情况发生了变化。尤其是美国,开始把因自身经济结构上存在 的问题和本身增长模式的转型难题,而暴露出美国体制固有的弊病所引发的危机责任,推到中国身上。在过去三十年中,世界把中国当成发展经济的领头羊,一路狂 跑,好不潇洒。当领头羊疲惫而减速时,习惯于跟在后面的羊群开始埋怨领头羊不仅挡住了一路风景,还吃光了肥草硕果,保护主义抬头,埋怨情绪高涨,幸灾乐祸 泛滥。原来的同舟共济,偷偷改为釜底抽薪。担心中国辉煌不再,悄悄另起炉灶。于是乎,TPP这个“怪胎”降生,也就不足为奇了。

TPP之所以“怪”,就在于它违背了西方国家一再鼓吹的“透明”原则。西方的任何事情都有着双重标准,人权如此,反恐如此,现在对“透明”也是存在不同标准。

自从美国加入TPP谈判,“隐秘”就成为TPP的标志,即使到了公布时,其中的核 心机密仍然没有公开。这是极不寻常的做法。这至少表明,TPP一定有着不可告人的秘密,一定有着超越经济贸易领域的内容,甚至会影响到地区和世界的安定。 美国曾经指责中国的亚投行筹建的不透明,其实美国的TPP才是真正的“暗室里”操作的协议。

TPP另一个“怪”,在于它表面是涉及经贸合作,但是恰恰把世界最大的贸易国-中国排除在外是不可理解的。所以人们怀疑TPP的真实用意和目的,是完全必要的。

笔者担心TPP成为第二个巴黎统筹会,是用“软刀子”挑战中国,迫使中国在未来的 冲突中就范。中国在过去花费了大量的资源申请加入各种国际经济金融机构,虽然培养了不少的专业人才,却也浪费了许多好资源,好机遇。看来,美国又要让中国 为申请加入TPP而高兴,因为这可以满足美国当老大的虚荣心,维护它认为的国际规则制定权。

TPP的诞生总给人一个异样的感觉,某些国际经济金融机构在美国主导下,越来越像帮会团体,或旧时上海滩的黑社会,充满老大习气,和西方宣传的所谓民主、公正、透明毫不相干。

习近平最近指出,中国必须有所作为,必须参与世界治理。否则世界真的变成让少数国家绑架的帮会,将是世界的悲哀。

中国在左转弯等候区的调整,将保证中国有一个新的开始。“十三五”正在等待我们去实现。( 作者是中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员)

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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