Can the Islamic State Be Defeated in 2016?

The Iraqi army defeated Islamic State fighters in Ramadi on Dec. 28, acquiring the capital city of the Al Anbar region. When the good news was announced, the Iraqi President Haider al-Abadi bragged to the media that if 2015 was the year of revolution, then 2016 will be the year of victory; it will be the end of the “Daesh,” or the Islamic State group, in Iraq and, consequently, the end of big losses to them.

With global counterterrorism efforts at an advantage right now, the Iraqi president is right to be optimistic. However, just having a positive goal, great confidence and high expectations is not enough. When we look at the ground battles ahead, we will realize that eradicating the Islamic State group is not easy.

First, the great countries outside the region – America, Russia, France and England – have used aerial strikes as the primary way to defeat the Islamic State group, and they have no plans to send large groups of ground forces. Although aerial attacks may have won some gains without ground forces cooperating, the Islamic State group will not give up their occupied territories.

Second, even if Iraqi forces could defeat the Islamic State group with aerial support and end their reign in Iraq, they could retreat to Syria and regroup to attack again, the same way they strengthened in Syria before attacking Iraq.

Third, Syria is a shattered country right now, despite the Security Council passing Resolution No. 2254 on Dec. 28, once again proclaiming a political solution and strategy for the Syria problem. The armed conflict between the Syrian government forces and rebels will not end any time soon. The Islamic State group will not run out of space in Syria.

Even if we made more allowances, and predict the Islamic State group to be corralled by various countries and forces, and it loses its territories in Iraq and Syria, does it mean its annihilation? Looking at the history of fighting al-Qaida in various countries, the answer is obviously no. When the U.S. Army defeated al-Qaida in Afghanistan, they continued to survive in Yemen, Iraq and other areas, which led to the birth of the Islamic State group later on. Currently, their influence is much stronger than al-Qaida’s; it has sympathizers and supporters in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas. With its origins in religious extremism, any place with religious extremist thinking would foster support for the Islamic State group. Instead of worrying about whether they can be defeated in 2016, it is wiser to spend our energy deliberating over how to prevent and counteract religious extremism.

The author is a professor and director of the Middle East Studies Center at Peking University’s School of International Studies.